Bobby and Alex fulfill their promise of ordering and eating MLB Ballpark Bites on the podcast (at the expense of their stomachs). Then, they each share four extrapolations from the first month+ of the MLB season and whether they expect them to actually continue or not.
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Songs featured in this episode:
TKTK • Booker T & the M.G.’s — “Green Onions”
Transcript
Tell us a little bit about what you saw and be able to relay that message to Cora when you watch Kimbrel pitch and kind of help out so he wasn’t typical pitches. So tipping pitches we hear about it all the time. People are home on the stand what tipping pitches all about? That’s amazing. That’s remarkable.
BOBBY: Just— we’re just going now. This is just live. I’m just gonna have to— have to edit it down. It’s like Russian roulette, like I’m afraid to get that LA Street Dog one and I don’t want them. [0:45]
ALEX: Oh, winner.
BOBBY: Oh, I got The Heater, though. Trade you. Okay. As promised, we did it. We ordered MLB Ballpark Bites. There’s a— there’s a QR code on the bag that it came in that says, “Scan for cool stuff.” So naturally—
ALEX: I will—
BOBBY: —you’re gonna scan for cool stuff. I’m afraid. What if it’s good? Like, what if this just become something that we order, regularly? When we hang out? We did order food for five people. Okay, I got the Philly, I got the Philly. Oh, man. Moment of truth. Here’s that pretzel roll.
ALEX: Pretzel roll.
BOBBY: It smells like a Philly Cheesesteak.
ALEX: Uh-huh.
BOBBY: I think it might— I think it might end up being good. Stevie.
ALEX: I see why they’re relatively cheap, because they’re quite small.
BOBBY: Yeah. I don’t know— I— I don’t— I don’t really know how I’m supposed to hold this.
ALEX: I don’t, either.
BOBBY: The pretzel roll is— it’s bad. It’s a bad idea.
ALEX: All right.
BOBBY: So everything is falling out.
ALEX: If there’s no avocado on my LA Street Dog, I’m going to be livid. First of all, what the fuck is this? What is going on here?
BOBBY: There’s no avocado on it?
ALEX: There’s no avocado on it.
BOBBY: Well, you’re gonna get a refund.
ALEX: How— first impressions?
BOBBY: It’s not good.
ALEX: Tha— that’s the Philly Cheesesteak?
BOBBY: It’s not good.
ALEX: Oh.
BOBBY: It’s so dry. I don’t know if it has cheese on it. And the pretzel roll is so hard.
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: Why?
ALEX: Well, because no one’s been ordering it.
BOBBY: So if you’re listening to this podcast right now, and you didn’t listen to last week’s episode, we discovered that—
ALEX: You’re so confused.
BOBBY: Yeah, you’re really confused. We discovered that MLB was partnering with DoorDash to open up—
ALEX: An IHOP.
BOBBY: —an IHOP, and enterprising—
ALEX: Potentially us.
BOBBY: —youths, like us. Enterprising youths. That’s how I would describe Tipping Pitches.
ALEX: Yup.
BOBBY: To offer your favorite Ballpark Bites at your local— on— on your favorite delivery services via Ghost Kitchens. And we decided that we would order those Ballpark Bites and try them on the podcast. We have acquired some French fries, naturally. We’ve acquired the Philly Cheesesteak on a pretzel roll. Everything is on a pretzel roll. Everything that you can buy is on a pretzel roll. I have no idea why. That’s not a ballpark staple. But we—
ALEX: I don’t think I’ve ever gotten something on a pretzel roll at a baseball game.
BOBBY: No.
ALEX: I’m sure I could have.
BOBBY: It’s definitely a supply chain thing. We got the LA Street Dog, which has— it’s a hot dog on a pretzel roll and it has what— what else does it have, A
ALEX: We’ve got onions, mustard, mayonnaise, jalapenos, and I was led to believe, sliced avocado.
BOBBY: Like, a lot of sliced avocado.
ALEX: Like, a lot of sliced avocado. None on mine. BOBBY: All right, what should I go for next?
ALEX: Oh, it’s like there’s pickles on here, too?
BOBBY: Pickles? On your LA Street Dog? This is not IHOP’s best work. All right, should I break out The Heater?
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: I’m actually afraid of this one. This one terrifies me. Can you open the app and tell me what was on this one? Stevie is so confused. She’s so confused. This is very upsetting. It’s— it’s very upsetting to look at, actually. Can you look at it? It’s so— it’s so bad experience, right?
ALEX: Wait. Ew. God. Oh, my God. All right, on The Heater, we have crispy chicken strips made with— crispy chicken strips made with all natural chicken. Okay.
BOBBY: That’s—
ALEX: I would hope so. With hickory smoked bacon, sauteed jalapenos, serrano peppers, and onions, and cheese sauce. [4:52]
BOBBY: Oh, this is not the one that has mayo and mustard?
ALEX: No, that was mine.
BOBBY: Okay. How— how was that? Honestly, you took a bite. You didn’t tell me how it tasted. How was it?
ALEX: You’re right. I’m gonna give it like a five out of 10.
BOBBY: [5:05]
ALEX: Maybe— maybe a little better than I expected. I think actually with the avocado, that probably would have bumped the number down a little bit.
BOBBY: It would have bumped it down?
ALEX: Yes. I think it would have detracted from the overall experience.
Bobbby: Since the avocado would have been bad?
ALEX: Probably, yeah. First thoughts, Heater.
BOBBY: It’s good, actually.
ALEX: Wow.
BOBBY: It’s way better than the Philly Cheesesteak.
ALEX: Oh, my God.
BOBBY: Do you wanna try?
ALEX: I kind of do.
BOBBY: All right. Let me get one more bite of it.
ALEX: I have some fries over here. We’ve not touched our Ballpark Dog.
BOBBY: Uh-hmm. Just past me The Heater.
ALEX: Did— would you like to try my LA Street Dog?
BOBBY: Kinda.
ALEX: Okay.
BOBBY: It’s so much mustard.
ALEX: It’s a lot of mustard.
BOBBY: Oh, my God. Why did they do that? Regret— regrettably, I think The Heater, which sounded like the most insane thing and, like, dumbass idea is the best thing so far. Guys love hot dogs. They’re so good.
ALEX: I know.
BOBBY: A hot dog is a fucking perfect food. Even though last week in the pod, you were like, “I don’t eat— eat hot dogs very often.” Diving into the final thing, the Ballpark Dog, which as you know, every ballpark serves ballpark dogs—
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: —on pretzel rolls.
ALEX: With— what— what do you have on this one? It’s like onions, relish, and mustard?
BOBBY: Yup. On a really toasted pretzel roll. I can’t— I can’t stress enough how hard all of the pretzel rolls. All the— they’re like chips. They’re so hard.
ALEX: Should I be taking a video of this?
BOBBY: All right, we’ve all— we’ve tried everything. Each of us have tried at least a bite of everything that we ordered.
ALEX: Actually, I haven’t tried the Ballpark Dog.
BOBBY: Oh, sorry. Wait. Let me pass you that while I— while I vent. [6:47]
ALEX: Uh-hmm. Pass me the dog.
BOBBY: All right, here’s the dog. Stevie— speaking of the dog.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: Stevie is very interested in what we decided to do on the podcast today, and she’d like us to continue to do more stuff like this. I think ultimately what I want to know here is—
ALEX: Aren’t any of these sandwiches?
BOBBY: They’re all sandwiches.
ALEX: Okay.
BOBBY: Don’t get me started. Don’t get me started, especially on the pretzel roll. There’s like a loaf of bread on each side of the meat. Number one, why didn’t they put any cheese on the cheesesteak? Number two, is this a worthwhile endeavor? Not us doing this, but like MLB Ballpark Bites. Do you think there are people whose lives are being improved by this?
ALEX: Pardon me. As we do this recording.
BOBBY: Yup.
ALEX: I—
BOBBY: Just think is inedible.
ALEX: I struggle to understand why anyone would choose to order this at home.
BOBBY: Versus just like finding somewhere that made real food.
ALEX: Yes. Like, the thing about ballpark food is that I think it tastes really good when you’re in a ballpark. I think that’s kind of the point of it. It’s like it’s a little greasy. You get it really quickly.
BOBBY: I just noticed by the way that it says, “Now batting Ballpark Dog.” That’s what it says when it tells you what you’re eating. “Now batting Ballpark Dog.” That’s what it says in the container that it came in. That was not developed by a human, that was developed—
ALEX: Yes.
BOBBY: —by AI.
ALEX: When you scan that QR code, by the way, it just takes you to, like, mlb.com
BOBBY: That’s it?
ALEX: It’s like— it’s like ML—
BOBBY: More fun stuff—
ALEX: It’s like MLB life.
BOBBY: Okay.
ALEX: With, like, a bunch of MLB just headlines.
BOBBY: Okay, great.
ALEX: Including the fact that you can now order MLB Ballpark Bites.
BOBBY: Well, what more would you need to know, as reading your Ballpark Dog than what’s going on in MLB?
ALEX: I think without the— first of all, I don’t think any of these are particularly good.
BOBBY: They’re all bad.
ALEX: The— the pretzel roll makes them all taste like very similar.
BOBBY: Yup.
ALEX: Like, they just all have a bready aftertaste delicious.
BOBBY: It’s heinous— heinous decision. Give me a fucking potato roll.
ALEX: I— I personally probably liked the hotdog-based ones the most, actually.
BOBBY: Okay.
ALEX: Because they tasted most familiar. Like they tasted like something.
BOBBY: Right. Like a hotdog.
ALEX: Like, I was like—
BOBBY: [9:01]
ALEX: —”Oh, this tastes like an actual hotdog.” Everything else is just kind of like window dressing.
BOBBY: See, the thing that— that pisses me off about this— and everybody’s always like, “Oh, it’s branding opportunity. Eating at the ballpark. Ballpark dog is such a strong brand.” Like, this doesn’t make me feel like I’m at a Mets game. There is no reason to eat this food. This is not what you get at a Mets game. This is not what I yearn for when I’m thinking about going to the ballpark. I’m not like, “Yeah, I can’t wait to get my pretzel roll from IHOP.” Honestly, the fries like fries. I love fries.
ALEX: Yup.
BOBBY: Ill-conceived all around. I would give them a D, a D. Sorry, Rob. I don’t think he had much to do with this, but sorry. Like, him at his office being like, “I— I got it. Pretzel rolls.”
ALEX: “I need— I need a Ballpark Dog right now. What can we do to make it happen?”
BOBBY: Okay.
ALEX: I think it’s a worthy endeavor.
BOBBY: For us.
ALEX: For us.
BOBBY: On the pod.
ALEX: For us on the pod.
BOBBY: Do you think is gonna set the right tone for the rest of the episode?
ALEX: I think it will. We talk about similarly nonsensical stuff like statistics throughout the rest of this thing.
BOBBY: So are we gonna, like, order something else to eat for lunch or are we gonna [10:12]
ALEX: I don’t— no, I don’t really want any of these.
BOBBY: Okay, great.
[laughter]
BOBBY: The rest of these—
ALEX: We didn’t get the Donut Hole, like, Bites or whatever, which I would say—
BOBBY: Right, right, right.
ALEX: —which may have changed the calculus entirely.
BOBBY: Why not?
ALEX: It’s the only thing on the menu that’s not on a pretzel roll. That, and the fries.
BOBBY: Can you imagine if the fries came in a pretzel roll?
ALEX: Came in a pretzel roll? I actually kind of like respect that a ton.
BOBBY: Yeah, definitely tip the— tip the cap to them for that. Okay. Well, the rest of this episode is actually legitimately serious baseball discussion, which is going to be as shocking, frankly, as it was to listen to us eat live on the podcast and review food in an audio only format. If you want to see me eat a hotdog, I think Alex is gonna post a video of me eating on Instagram so I guess you could go check that out. Before we do all of that, I am Bobby Wagner.
ALEX: And I still have food in my mouth.
BOBBY: And you are listening to Eating Pitches.
[theme]
BOBBY: Normal way to start a pod, normal way to start a pod. Thank you to this week’s new patron, Orbitz Sucks, for giving us the funds to do what we just did. Your Patreon dollars are hard spent here at Tipping Pitches Industries. They’re not being wasted on things like going to the ballpark. They’re being used for things like ordering from the IHOP Ghost Kitchen four blocks away from here so that we can have lunch live on the pod.
ALEX: We’re making these sacrifices so you don’t have to. I just want to be very clear.
BOBBY: By all means, do not eat the LA street Dog. Do not eat The Heater. Heater, is that what it was called?
ALEX: Uh-huh.
BOBBY: Do not eat that. We ate it. We could tell you, don’t eat it. No, today on the podcast, on the real part of the podcast where we talk about baseball, which is actually increasingly rare on this show. We’re going to talk about baseball.
ALEX: Like— like very deeply.
BOBBY: Oh, my god, it’s gonna be such a whiplash from that stupid open to this podcast. I’m calling this Reckless Extrapolation. How do you like that?
ALEX: That’s good.
BOBBY: Really SEO friendly. Two words that people are always just like— I go to Google and I’m like, “Reckless extrapolation.”
ALEX: Yes.
BOBBY: We’re over a month into the season. The A’s are 17-17.
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: The Mets are 17-18. We’re neck and neck.
ALEX: Just like we thought.
BOBBY: Are the A’s good?
ALEX: Not according to you.
BOBBY: I tried to get them into this exercise, and unfortunately, every number that I looked at, it was like, “Nah, they’re not good.” I checked them all. I checked all the numbers, and the numbers were like, “No.”
ALEX: That’s interesting, because the— the one number that I paid attention to, it says there are .500.
BOBBY: They wouldn’t be in the playoffs, though. So [13:06]
ALEX: [13:06] gets closer to first place than they are a wild card spot right now.
BOBBY: To the last place? Oh. They’re closer to first in their division than they are—
ALEX: Yes
BOBBY: Okay. Well, that’s because the AL East has actually good baseball teams in them, and the AL West doesn’t.
ALEX: Shame to the Mariners.
BOBBY: The Mariners are fine. They have like a triple A lineup, especially when Julio Rodriguez is not Julio Rodriguez.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: Which he hasn’t really been for this year. But we’re not talking about the Mariners. I don’t know if they’re gonna come up in this— a former Mariner is on my list, but I don’t believe that any of our Reckless Extrapolations feature the Seattle Mariners, unless I’m forgetting one. We’re over a month into the season, like I said, so we’re going to take some— we’re going to take some of what has happened and we are going to extrapolate it forward. The original concept for this was what would be the most fun things if they stayed stable throughout the rest of the season. I think we strayed a little bit from that, and we just really looked at some small sample size stuff, and we’re like, “Wow, that’s kind of crazy.”
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: Each of us have come up with four things that we have noticed throughout the first month of the season, that it would be notable if it stayed this way through the rest of the year. Would you like to kick us off?
ALEX: Sure. You want to talk stolen bases?
BOBBY: Sure. I think Rob wants us to talk stolen bases.
ALEX: Well, it’s working.
BOBBY: Some people were like, “Bobby, you gotta stop reading Twitter conspiracy theories.” When I was like, “Rob Manfred told the official scorekeepers to call more things stolen bases.”
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: And I was like, “Do you realize that this whole show was born out of that mentality?”
ALEX: Right, exactly.
BOBBY: Just like going to Twitter and being like, “This is true.”
ALEX: We did a whole episode about conspiracy theories.
BOBBY: Yes, we did. Some of your best work.
ALEX: I appreciate that. We gotta— we gotta revive that. I think we’ve said that multiple times, though.
BOBBY: We’ve talked about like blowing it out into its own whole series.
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: And that requires a lot of work.
ALEX: It does require a lot of work. You know what also requires a lot of work? Is stealing bases, but—
BOBBY: Not really.
ALEX: —but players are good getting good at it, because they are making it easier on them.
BOBBY: You know what the most work that you can do for no reward is? Steal on a foul tip, and then you just have to run back to first.
ALEX: That is true.
BOBBY: That sucks.
ALEX: Yes, it does suck.
BOBBY: Because you don’t know that it’s gonna be foul. You have to basically run it out like it’s actually in play.
ALEX: I— I think it’s actually worse to steal on like a fly ball, because not only do you have to run the second, you also have to run back to first. You can’t even, like, catch your breath—
BOBBY: Jog back.
ALEX: —to jog back.
BOBBY: Yeah.
ALEX: You’re like in play still.
BOBBY: Okay. So what’s up with stolen bases?
ALEX: We’re on pace for roughly 3,600 of them.
BOBBY: Okay.
ALEX: Which for context would be the most in roughly 100 years.
BOBBY: Oh, wow. So we were a little bit behind pace to start the season off. I remember discussing that on the podcast briefly, but we’re back up to speed, though.
ALEX: We were. That pace is— is back up. I will say that, like, caught stealing is up slightly as well, so I think attempts just overall are— are on the rise. We’re at— we’re recording this on May 5th.
BOBBY: Cinco de Mayo pod. You were like, “I’d like to take off to honor Cinco de Mayo.”
ALEX: Right. And I was like, “No, we have to eat foods that honors the tradition of— of Cinco de Mayo.”
BOBBY: LA Street Dogs.
ALEX: Like the LA Street Dog.
BOBBY: You know how they do it down in Mexico? Is on a soft pretzel roll. It’s on pretzel rolls [16:18] It kills me. Why are they all on soft pretzel rolls?
ALEX: Through March and April last year, there were 602 stolen bases. Through March and April this year, we’re at 672 stolen bases.
BOBBY: A pretty significant difference.
ALEX: So like a— like a significant jump.
BOBBY: Okay. Great. I love a stolen base.
ALEX: Good. Well, I hope you— you see more of them.
BOBBY: And that is a selfless thing for me to say because you know why? The Mets don’t steal bases very well and they do give up a lot of stolen bases. I think they’ve caught like one runner this whole year.
ALEX: Oh, my God.
BOBBY: It’s really bad.
ALEX: That is really bad.
BOBBY: It’s really bad. And you can’t even blame just Francisco Alvarez because he’s been out for the last few weeks. And so, Omar Narvaez, no. Tomas Nido, who’s back on the Mets. Baby, we’re back. No, not catching anybody.
ALEX: Well, that’s good, so they’re spreading the love.
BOBBY: Yes, exactly.
ALEX: They are contributing to this trend, and I have to thank them for it.
BOBBY: Is there— are there any particular players who are contributing to this trend?
ALEX: There’s— there’s one in particular whose— whose name I refrain—
BOBBY: Oh, he’s on your list later. Okay.
ALEX: I’m gonna refrain from saying. What’s—
BOBBY: Now, that’s a bad hosting by me.
ALEX: What’s in—
BOBBY: Poor— poor job.
ALEX: What’s interesting is it’s not even like there is a larger group of players stealing a lot of bases.
BOBBY: Uh-huh.
ALEX: You know? Like, it’s not like there are 20 players who’ve stolen 10 bases at this point of the season versus, like, 10 players who hit that mark last year. It’s just broadly across the board. I think more players are running and— and finding success in it. So Rob, masterclass?
BOBBY: Rob’s on a little bit of a hot streak.
ALEX: He is.
BOBBY: You know, I can’t stop thinking about the umpires union, by the way.
ALEX: Okay.
BOBBY: Speaking of things that we—
ALEX: I mean, same.
BOBBY: —were wrong about all of the stuff on our Bingo Card. None of it has come true yet.
ALEX: Wow, you’re skipping my— my last—
BOBBY: [18:10]
ALEX: —my last extrapolation.
BOBBY: Oh, I was watching the Aaron Judge Jack— ejection—
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: —this morning. I believe he got ejected yesterday, Saturday, for arguing a pitch that just kind of clipped the black on the outside, but the catcher kind of had stabbed [18:23] for it, and so sort of a bang, bang call, umpire rang them up. I think Judge turned around and said that that was bullshit. The umpire threw him out immediately. It does feel like there’s a little bit of— the umps are trying to set a hard line this year. They’re trying to set their own hard blue line that players can’t cross.
ALEX: Uh-huh.
BOBBY: I feel like you used to be able to get away with cursing out the umpire, as you were walking away. If you got in his face and curse him out, obviously, they’re gonna toss you. But with— between the Boone ejection and Aaron Judge who’s never been ejected in his career, getting ejected—
ALEX: Wow.
BOBBY: —for calling a pitch bullshit. I don’t know.
ALEX: So, is that what he said? He was like, “That’s bullshit.”
BOBBY: At first, when I was trying to read the lips of the umpire, I thought that it—
ALEX: All right. Put your best Jomboy impression on.
BOBBY: Okay. Okay, great. So Jomboy is over, somebody has to step into his shoes. I thought that the umpire was suggesting that Aaron Judge called him a pussy.
ALEX: Okay.
BOBBY: Because, you know, bullshit, that’s— that kind of sound like—
ALEX: Right.
BOBBY: It looks similar when you say it out loud. And I was like, “Maybe warranted to eject him for that.”
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: You shouldn’t really be yelling that in a ballpark.
ALEX: I think I wouldn’t— I wouldn’t do that, yeah.
BOBBY: But calling a pitch bullshit, I mean, come on. That’s not really— that’s not even really a curse word at this point.
ALEX: No.
BOBBY: It’s just a— it’s just a concept. I don’t know. I personally would not have ejected Aaron Judge. A lot of frustration going on for Aaron Judge these days. Not having a good season.
ALEX: No, he’s not.
BOBBY: Maybe could have put him in here, in Reckless Extrapolation. Reckless Extrapolation, Aaron Judge is good as done.
ALEX: Is done, is over.
BOBBY: A lot of people—
ALEX: Aaron Judge is over party.
BOBBY: I mean, he’s a pretty big guy. He goes quick. I don’t know. A lot of people are doing their own threads about whether or not his O contact rate— I don’t know. It’s like a little too deep for me for this exercise, so I was like, “I hope Aaron Judge is not cooked, because he’s one of the most fun baseball players to watch.” That is how magnanimous I am. Not rooting for a Yankee to be done.
ALEX: Yeah. I mean, to be clear, he’s still been an— above average hitter this year, which is like— says something, right? It’s like—
BOBBY: Based on— based on what? Based on what? What’s that?
ALEX: wRC+.
BOBBY: Eh, whatever.
ALEX: Yeah. Fuck it.
BOBBY: What does that stand for?
ALEX: He’s hitting 200 and he has like a .340 on base percentage.
BOBBY: Yeah, he’s amazing.
ALEX: Like, come on.
BOBBY: Dude, I was looking at FanGraphs pitching leaderboards today, just trying to come up with some notable things to share here in this Reckless Extrapolation. Dylan Cease’s batting average on balls in play, that he’s allowed, 192.
ALEX: Hmm. Is that good?
BOBBY: I don’t think that that’s going to hold up. 192, I mean, it’s generally thought up to be league average [21:06] is around .300. It fluctuates 20, 30 points every year, but 192, that would be historic— historic batting average on balls in play. Okay. First reckless extrapolation for me, there are only three relevant contending teams in Major League Baseball, and those three relevant contending teams are the Philadelphia Phillies, the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the Baltimore Orioles. I— the reason I chose those three teams is because those are the only three teams right now that are top 10 in the league in pitching WAR and hitting WAR, which is not really a thing that is necessarily a— a requirement in the sport of baseball. I think in— in basketball if you’re top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency, that’s generally thought of to be like, “Okay. You’re a legitimate title contender. It’s very hard for you to win the title if you’re not in those.” Baseball, a little bit looser, because you can be so dominant on one end than the other, or you can get wild variants come playoff time, if you just sneak into the playoffs. Like, I don’t think the Texas Rangers were top 10 in pitching WAR last year. I could be wrong, but they were definitely top 10 in hitting WAR. So if you have one that is so much more dominant than the other, you can sneak your way in. But this was just a framing convention that was fun for me to say that the Braves aren’t a title contender.
ALEX: Okay. Good.
BOBBY: They have legitimate concerns— well, it’s— it’s that and it’s also a way for me to do a little bit of a mea culpa on my Orioles hatred. Man, that’s a good baseball team.
ALEX: Yeah. Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: Holy shit. They are fucking loaded.
ALEX: Yup.
BOBBY: Pitching looks pretty good. The bullpen, extremely shaky, but if there’s one element of the team that I would trust Mike Elias to actually trade for and improve, it’s the bullpen because it’s a little bit of a lower price. Those guys are rentals. It’s fluctuates year to year. More teams are willing to sell at the deadline for bullpen pieces than they are for legitimate cornerstones of their team that would improve the Orioles in places that they need to, like starting pitching long-term. I think that the Orioles are incredible. Phillies first in pitching, eighth in hitting. Dodgers 10th in pitching, first in hitting. Orioles eighth in pitching, fourth in hitting. This is FanGraphs WAR, by the way. It’s the only WAR that I acknowledge.
ALEX: That, and [23:10] WAR.
BOBBY: That, and [23:10] WAR. I think the big surprise for me in there was the Phillies, who are in first in the NL East, by the way, and have a better run differential than the Braves. And are 8-2 in their last 10.
ALEX: Yup.
BOBBY: Their pitching is insane.
ALEX: Yes.
BOBBY: Ranger Suarez just turning into the best left-handed pitcher in baseball. He didn’t have—
ALEX: Ranger Suarez being the best pitcher in that rotation?
BOBBY: Well, let’s not get carried away. Zack Wheeler is still pretty amazing.
ALEX: I— but if we’re doing reckless extrapolation—
BOBBY: Right, if we’re doing just based on run prevention, all of the underlying data would still suggest that Zack Wheeler striking out 11 per nine this year, is still the ace of that rotation. But Ranger Suarez being a legitimate number one or number two starter, that changes the dynamic, especially given all of the pitching woes that Atlanta is going through. Of course, the Atlanta lineup is going to continue to mash. They are just way too good to be held down for too long and [24:09]
ALEX: Right. It is still the best lineup in baseball right now.
BOBBY: I think the Dodgers are better.
ALEX: I disagree.
BOBBY: Well, the Dodgers have— the Dodgers hitters have amassed 11 WAR and the second team on that list is like 7.5. So a lot of that has to do with another guy that I have on my list here, who we’re going to talk about.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: But the— I— it’s all still a little bit squishy at this point in the season, especially when you’re looking at something like WAR, who’s— has— has wider error bars. Team wRC+ plus probably a better indication of how well the team is hitting just because WAR for hitters also encompasses team defense as well too. So there’s like a little bit of variance there if we’re just talking about lineup. You can flip a coin. I mean, either— either of those lineups is not fun to face. I think that the Dodgers have more of a— an ability to blow a game wide open in one frame, whereas the Braves have a slightly better top to bottom lineup than the Dodgers. But you can look up all of a sudden and you had to face Betts, Ohtani, and Freeman and you’ve given them five rounds, and now the game is just over. Oh, and by the way, Max Muncy two-homerun game last night, as they put a smackdown on the Braves. So I see where— I see where you’re coming from. They are the most— the Braves are the most, like, well-fleshed out roster, probably. But on the pitching side—
ALEX: Yeah, lots of question marks.
BOBBY: The Dodgers have question marks too, because of health and stuff. But the answer is that the Braves are hoping to find come in the form of Max Fried staying healthy, which is tough. And 41-year-old Charlie Morton, and Chris Sale. Chris Sale staying healthy. Who has been— he’s been good. Good pitcher when he’s on the mound. But they might need more reinforcements there than any of the top— top— top contenders need anywhere else in their roster. Which is weird thing to say, because they’re kind of like the death— I mean, I— I’ve kind of thought of them as like the death star of MLB for the last two or three years, just no holes up and down the roster, but, you know, maybe slightly more questions than usual. And I think that that might lead to a closer NL East race than we thought one month into the season. I think the Phillies could win the NL East.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: Is what I’m saying. Which would be really funny.
ALEX: That would be really— yeah, the Orioles don’t even need Jackson Holliday right now. They have the luxury of being able—
BOBBY: Thankfully.
ALEX: Thank— right, yeah. They have the luxury of being like, “Yeah, the top prospect in baseball, take your time. No rush.”
BOBBY: Especially since he was like the fourth best hitter on the Triple A team so far through that season.
ALEX: Right, exactly. The rest of that lineup has like a 1,200 OPS or whatever. I’m like—
BOBBY: One of the Orioles is gonna call up Kyle Stowers, been waiting.
ALEX: Yeah. Coby Mayo.
BOBBY: They don’t have roster spots for these guys.
ALEX: I know.
BOBBY: Get a fucking reliever, Mike Elias. God.
ALEX: That’s Yennier [27:10]
BOBBY: I didn’t say they have no relievers.
ALEX: Hmm.
BOBBY: It’s just Craig Kimbrel has been in a lot of tight spots.
ALEX: Yup.
BOBBY: Not what you want. Ask the Phillies how that goes. All right. What’s next on your Reckless extrapolation?
ALEX: You asked who’s— who’s leading the way with stolen bases.
BOBBY: Uh-hmm.
ALEX: It— it— it may not surprise you to hear that the answer to that— or it may surprise you to hear, I don’t know, that the answer to that is one Elly De La Cruz of the Cincinnati Reds.
BOBBY: I mean, it’s only like three steps for him to get from first to second.
ALEX: Yes. This man is unreal. I mean, he is 22 years old, right? He has stolen 19 bases so far. Once again, I want to point out, it is May the 5th, May the 5th be with you, Bobby, as the saying goes.
BOBBY: We got to put that in the past.
ALEX: Like, he’s on pace for like, you know, 85, 90 stolen bases right now, which again, is not to say that the— these paces are going to keep up, but that’s not what this segment is about, right? It’s about being a little bit reckless. He is— I mean, he’s— you know, you mentioned BABIP. He’s posting a ridiculous BABIP right now.
BOBBY: Yeah.
ALEX: Batting average on balls in play of like 375, which is gonna come down. Although, he’s the kind of player who is able to run a higher BABIP than most players because of the speed, because—
BOBBY: And because he hits the ball so fucking hard.
ALEX: Right. Exactly.
BOBBY: Good luck fielding that.
ALEX: Yes, exactly. He’s able to make plays closer than they probably should be. He’s showing far better plate discipline right now. Again, you don’t want to talk about, 0 swing rate, or 0 contact rate, or whatever, but those are looking better for him.
BOBBY: I mostly don’t want to talk about that, because there’s like, four different versions of that stat that kind of mean the same thing, depending on whose perspective you’re talking about it from.
ALEX: Right.
BOBBY: Like, is it the pitcher? Is it the hitter? Is it the— is it a take? Is it a swing? Is it— it’s just— it’s tough to talk about aloud. I’m fine reading about it.
ALEX: Yes [29:11]
BOBBY: Talking about it out loud is tough. Is he chasing— give me his chase rate.
ALEX: His chase rate.
BOBBY: Yeah.
ALEX: Right, exactly. I don’t necessarily know what the extrapolation is here beyond like he will continue to do more superhuman things that we haven’t seen before, right?
BOBBY: Uh-hmm.
ALEX: He’s hitting outside the park home runs. Those are good. He’s hitting inside the park home runs.
BOBBY: Uh-hmm.
ALEX: He is stealing all the bases you possibly com— can.
BOBBY: Isn’t he, like, stealing third a lot?
ALEX: Like, third— third and home?
BOBBY: Yeah.
ALEX: So he’s three— he’s like making throws from shortstop that are, like, you know, 105 miles per hour.
BOBBY: Yeah. Someone posted some fake news on Twitter the other day, that was like this Elly De La Cruz throw was 109 miles per hour.
ALEX: Yeah, I know. That [30:02] was like, “Let’s pump the brakes here a little bit.” But it’s one of those things where it’s like—
BOBBY: He’s throwing the ball so hard that the first baseman can’t catch it.
ALEX: Yes. It’s the kind of thing where it’s like, “Well, he could have.”
BOBBY: Right.
ALEX: Like, I— like, I believe that he could have done that.
BOBBY: Right. That number is not above the line, though, which I would be like, “That’s not possible.”
ALEX: Exactly. Right. Yes. So what more is to come? Does that mean he’s gonna have— are we extrapolating that he’s gonna have six inside the park home runs this year?
BOBBY: Sure. Why not?
ALEX: Six home bases stolen?
BOBBY: That would be cool.
ALEX: That’d be cool.
BOBBY: Do you know what the MLB record for stealing of home is?
ALEX: Like in a year?
BOBBY: Yeah.
ALEX: Are you asking me because you know the answer or because—
BOBBY: Nope. I just want to know. You could look up that while I go to my next one. How about that?
ALEX: What’s the record for most stolen bases home in a year?
BOBBY: Siri is gonna crush that one.
SIRI: In the modern era, Ty Cobb set a single season mark of 96 stolen bases in 1915.
ALEX: It’s not helpful.
BOBBY: 96 stolen— he stole home 96 times? That’s not even the right answer, by the way.
ALEX: No, it’s not even most—
BOBBY: That’s not even close to right.
ALEX: Like it’s not even most of the year.
BOBBY: Man, it’s so old.
ALEX: I don’t even know how to— what’s the right phrasing for this?
BOBBY: I don’t know.
ALEX: Home bases stolen?
BOBBY: Most times stealing home in a single season is what I would Google.
ALEX: Ty Cobb did steal home eight times in 1912.
BOBBY: Holy shit. That’s a lot of times.
ALEX: That is a lot of times.
BOBBY: That’s just bad defense.
ALEX: What was the catcher doing?
BOBBY: I don’t know. What was the pitcher doing? Randy Arozarena— the Mets are playing the Rays right now. Randy was legitimately halfway down the third baseline for an entire inning. And I was like, “You guys know that you could just change up the defense a little bit.”
ALEX: Right.
BOBBY: “And not just let him be over there distracting the pitcher up.” It’s fine. Okay. Next on my list, let’s go to one of my favorite pitchers, who has not been a good pitcher for a large chunk of his MLB career, but he’s someone who I’ve never given up on. I’d like to read you two sets of statistics that— that Foolish Baseball, whom we are a fan of tweeted out yesterday—
ALEX: Speak for yourself.
BOBBY: Wow, foolish beef? You’re trying drop a foolish beef up here?
ALEX: Jomboy down, looking for the next target, you know?
BOBBY: He’s a Brave fan. His only downside is like foolish— come on, dude. Come on. He tweeted two anonymous sets of statistics and asked people to choose the better pitcher between those two pitchers. And then like a couple hours later, he revealed who those pitchers were. Pitcher A, this is since last June, 28 games started, 151 innings pitched, 28% strikeouts, 6% walks, 42% ground ball, 3.34 ERA, 2.97 FIP, 3.24 xFIP, 105 stuff plus. Pitcher B, 26 game started, 145 innings pitched, 28k percentage, 7% walks, 41% ground ball, almost exactly the same. 3.48 ERA, slightly higher, 3.41 FIP, half a run higher, 3.52 xFIP, third of a run higher, 100 stuff plus exactly. Now, clearly, based on those statistics, pitcher A is better than pitcher B.
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: Pitcher A is the Yusei Kikuchi. Pitcher B is Kevin Gausman. Kind of galling.
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: Honestly. But for us who have held our Yusei Kikuchi stock, you’re gonna have to pry that stock from my cold dead hands—
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: —if you want to buy it from me.
ALEX: You bought literal stock, right? This was through at A-Rod’s app that you can invest in players?
BOBBY: Yes, I’m heavily leveraged. It’s why we need to—
ALEX: Yusei to the moon.
BOBBY: It’s why we need to eat Ballpark Bites on the— on the— live on the pod because it’s the only thing I can afford. Now, I don’t really think Yusei Kikuchi is better than Kevin Gausman, but— but who knows? I think those of us who were excited about when he came over and what he could offer to the Mariners’ rotation, we’re hoping that his well above average breaking stuff could compensate for his pretty flat, non-remarkable fastball. And that he could finally find a sequence of pitches— a steady sequence of pitches that would allow him to use his fastball to get ahead in counts and then use his breaking stuff to put people away. I don’t know for certain that he’s done that permanently, but dating back to last June is essentially a whole season, and he’s been as good or better than someone who we think of as a top of the— top of the crop ace and Kevin Gausman. And, you know, if you check the numbers on Baseball Savant, all of his pitches have above average run value, including his curveball, which is like elite run value. He’s finally the pitcher that we— I like, that— those of us in the fan club, me and myself and George Schusterman and Zach Kram, like these are— this is a good guy that we have been hoping for, for a really long time. He’s finally the guy that we were hoping for, and like somehow the Blue Jays are still not that good. I’m just like— don’t really understand it. He’s— has seven starts this season and is 2-2. Obviously, that doesn’t really matter. It’s got a lot of no decisions, but recklessly extrapolating Yusei Kikuchi is an ace, a top tier ace this season. Live with that?
ALEX: Hell yeah.
BOBBY: Haters and losers. He was so bad for, like, two years.
ALEX: I know.
BOBBY: He was like unpitchable.
ALEX: For like more than two years.
BOBBY: He was like moved to the bullpen. He was traded. Like, yeah, he was not good.
ALEX: Well, it was the kind of thing where you like you watched all of his starts, and it was like, “I don’t understand why you’re not good.” Like, in— in theory, this stuff is all there. If you look at a lot of his baseline numbers, they are not radically different from years past, with the exception of, like, he’s giving up far fewer home runs. Which, like, I think there’s gonna be a little bit of regression there.
BOBBY: Probably, the de-juiced ball really helps him.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: A guy like him because he gives up a decent amount of fly balls and he has had home run problems. I mean, this is the thing with left-handed pitchers who throw a straight fastball. You’re gonna give up a lot of home runs because there’s a lot of righties, and unless your fastball is like 99 miles per hour, you’re not just gonna blow it by guys anymore. And he’s in the mid-90s, you know? he’s reached back for mid to higher 90s At times throughout his career, but even still, he’s not going to get that by people unless he’s like playing it off of his other off-speed stuff. And when you finally have two off-speed pitches working, it’s a lot easier to do that, the changeup and the curveball and slightly different shape of the breaking ball slider. That stuff is all kind of working right now. And he’s a really fun pit— pitcher to watch aesthetically, too. He’s like not— he’s— to me, he is like the— the anti-Snell whereas like Snell will never— just never attack a hitter. At least Kikuchi will.
ALEX: Right.
BOBBY: He’s gonna give up home runs, then fine, but at least, he will not just nibble the whole time.
ALEX: He’s gonna make the hitter beat them.
BOBBY: Yeah. And unfortunately, the hitters were beating him for like three years, but it’s okay. They’re not anymore. That’s my reckless extrapolation. Okay. What’s next for you?
ALEX: We can stay on the theme of pitchers.
BOBBY: Okay, great. I have another pitching-related one, too.
ALEX: Oh, great. Fine.
BOBBY: It’s really just pitching and hitting, and that’s the whole— that’s the whole of it.
ALEX: That’s— you know, that’s the whole thing. This is— this conversation feels a bit like a fever dream, because I feel like I remember— I vaguely remember you reading off groundball rates for pitchers in the last conversation, and that’s just really jarring to me. What do you mean you were talking about his pitch values?
BOBBY: Just like to let people know that sometimes we can evaluate baseball. We choose not to.
ALEX: Right.
BOBBY: We can do it and we choose not to do it.
ALEX: Yes, right.
BOBBY: Because it’s not our strong suit in comparison to the rest of baseball media necessarily.
ALEX: Right. Exactly. Which is why we’re dedicating it all up to this—
BOBBY: Yeah.
ALEX: —right now.
BOBBY: But— but everyone else who would talk like this about baseball, did they start their episode by eating the LA Street Dog on a soft pretzel roll?
ALEX: So true.
BOBBY: Exactly.
ALEX: No one else can say that.
BOBBY: Exactly.
ALEX: Have you heard of Mason Miller?
BOBBY: I have.
ALEX: Yup. He is the— he’s currently the closer for the .500 Oakland Athletics.
BOBBY: Hang the banner.
ALEX: That’s right.
BOBBY: .500 through 34 games, hang the banner. Dawg, Mason Miller. Enjoy it while it lasts, everybody. Enjoy it while it lasts.
ALEX: Why? Because he’s going to—
BOBBY: Be on another team and/or have Tommy John.
ALEX: Okay. Cool. Thank you. That’s— I really appreciate that. That’s one way of extrapolating. He is striking out more than 50% of the batters that he faces right now.
BOBBY: Yeah. He’s like Edwin Diaz with three extra miles per hour.
ALEX: He has not given up a homerun yet this year. His fastball velocity is averaging 101.2 miles per hour.
BOBBY: Uh-huh.
ALEX: He has a—
BOBBY: Normal amount.
ALEX: He has a negative FIP.
BOBBY: Now, that’s good, right?
ALEX: Which, again, is— is in do— it’s true to the fact that he hasn’t—
BOBBY: Should— should we be doing more—
ALEX: —given up on any home runs.
BOBBY: Right. Should we be doing more explaining of what some of the stats are?
ALEX: Maybe.
BOBBY: Like, people who listen to this pod may actually— I think a lot of people are like, “You guys are dumb, and I know way more about this than you.”
ALEX: Yeah,
BOBBY: I think some people are probably like, “You guys are talking about baseball. This is not what I came here for.” FIP, fielding independent pitching, it’s— it’s like a—
ALEX: Oh, yeah.
BOBBY: It’s a statistic—
ALEX: What is it, Bobby?
BOBBY: —that tries to mirror ERA, which is earned run average. But—
ALEX: And what’s ERA?
BOBBY: The average amount of runs that you get based on a nine-inning game.
ALEX: Beautiful.
BOBBY: [39:59] based on a nine-inning game.
ALEX: Beautiful.
BOBBY: And FIP just tries to measure the— it tries to measure the expected results versus what actually happened. So, like, it only factors in walks, strikeouts, home runs.
ALEX: Right. It’s measuring what’s within the control of the pitcher, basically.
BOBBY: Yes. Yes. It’s a controversial statistic, I’ll tell you that. But you know what? I believe in FIP.
ALEX: I don’t—
BOBBY: I’m a FIP believer.
ALEX: I don’t think it’s— I mean, I don’t think it’s super controversial, right? It’s like— as people are little more—
BOBBY: I think it is, because people are more— there’s a lot of stuff that happens that’s not walks, strikeouts, or homeruns.
ALEX: Well, yeah.
BOBBY: You know? And pitchers can control a lot of that stuff. But for the most part, I think it evens out to the point where FIP is a useful number to look at in context.
ALEX: Yeah. I will also note— I— I wrote these notes down last night. Last night, it was -0.87. Today, it is actually -0.006, so I want to amend that.
BOBBY: Hmm. It is slightly [40:59]
ALEX: He is still technically on an ace for a negative FIP this year, but it is slightly worse. So it’s not giving up a home run. I mean, you know, again, if we are extrapolating, it would be the lowest FIP of all time, beating out Craig Kimbrel in his 0.78 in 2012. Matt Strahm, I just want to—
BOBBY: 2012? Fucking Obama era.
ALEX: That’s right. I want to say Matt Strahm is also a [41:26]
BOBBY: Could’ve been Romney era, but he just botched it, you know?
ALEX: I— I know. I was— I was pulling for him.
BOBBY: Binder full of women. If you think about it in retrospect, more people could use a binder full of women.
ALEX: You know, he was ahead of his time.
BOBBY: This is just bad PR for a good concept. You’ve seen the Mitt doc on Netflix.
ALEX: Multiple times.
BOBBY: It’s really some of the— some of the best viewing you ever get to experience.
ALEX: It’s art. It’s a piece of art.
BOBBY: It’s so great.
ALEX: It is, unironically, a really good look at how a man like that functions.
BOBBY: Yeah, like a crazy robot demon person who just wants to be president above all else.
ALEX: Yeah, exactly. Much to the chagrin of literally everyone around him.
BOBBY: And like, “Please, please, miss, no. Dad, no!”
ALEX: And his entire family is like, “Please do not do this. This will destroy us.”
BOBBY: And it— then it leaves.
ALEX: And he was like, “Let me finish ironing the shirt that I’m wearing right now.”
BOBBY: Wearing currently. That was one of the— that’s some of the craziest stuff.
ALEX: I’ll never forget that.
BOBBY: Never, never.
ALEX: Mason Miller, okay.
BOBBY: Back to Mason Miller. Just a quick— quick Mitt Romney detour.
ALEX: He’s like thrown more pitches that are over 100 miles per hour than—
BOBBY: Like, the rest of the league combined.
ALEX: Exactly.
BOBBY: Yeah.
ALEX: So what’s the extrapolation here, that he’s the best reliever of all time? Not when— all— I— it’s worth noting at this point. Last year, Alexis Diaz was leading the league with 0.26 FIP and, like, ended up with, like, a 3.5 ERA. So, like, again, these things change.
BOBBY: Especially for relievers who have such a small inning example.
ALEX: Exactly. You have a couple bad back-to-back outings.
BOBBY: Yeah.
ALEX: All of a sudden that gets blown up. Once Mason Miller gives up ta home run, that FIP will go up, but it hasn’t happened yet. And there’s been no indication that it will.
BOBBY: Dude, he blew three pitches by Juan Soto like I haven’t seen anybody do ever.
ALEX: I mean, his performance against the Yankees, specifically that one inning—
BOBBY: Yes.
ALEX: —where he just made them look foolish. I don’t even know what to say. There’s a reason the A’s are .500 right now, and somehow it’s entirely thanks to Mason Miller.
BOBBY: And Brent Rooker.
ALEX: That’s—
BOBBY: Don’t leave Brent Rooker out of it.
ALEX: Tyler Nevin. You want to— you want to talk some A’s players right now?
BOBBY: I actually do. Okay. So tell me why you believe in the A’s? Because there’s not a lot of— of defensible reasons in my mind, but you know, this is your one last hurrah with the A’s.
ALEX: With the A’s.
BOBBY: I am almost certain that no one listening to this finds that funny, that I keep just calling them A’s and not Oakland’s [43:54]
ALEX: It— it throws me off a little bit, I will say.
BOBBY: No one thinks it’s funny, but that’s why I’m gonna keep doing it.
ALEX: I don’t know that I believe in A’s, but I don’t not believe it. I don’t think they’re a bad team that is drastically overperforming.
BOBBY: That’s interesting. I think they are a bad team, but not drastically overperforming, slightly overperforming. I think that they’re like a 73-win team.
ALEX: Sure.
BOBBY: That’s better than people thought.
ALEX: Yes.
BOBBY: It’s better than another team that’s coming up soon. Not— not the team that I’m about to talk about, but a team that’s coming up later on your list.
ALEX: Oh, I got it. Okay.
BOBBY: Like, the local YMCA team might be better than the team that’s coming up on your list. Okay. Can we talk about the Astros?
ALEX: Sure.
BOBBY: They’re so fucking cooked, dude. They’re so cooked. They know they dug themselves a really deep hole and they’ve been playing a little bit better as of late. But as— at time of recording, the Astros are 12-21. They are six games out of first place. They have a -19 run differential. And they are in fourth in their own division behind your beloved A’s. The offense, pretty good still. Fifth best by Team wRC+ 113.
ALEX: For folks not named Alex Bregman.
BOBBY: That’s not really— they’re not really concerned about that. I think the people who they were expecting to hit have hit. Unfortunately, that is not the only aspect of a baseball team as we have discussed at great length from this here podcast. We’re doing a lot of talk about pitching. Here’s some numbers for you about the Astros pitching, team ERA 4.75. That’s the fifth worst in baseball. Team FIP 4.33. That’s the seventh worst in baseball. Pitching WAR 1.1. We are 35 games into the season, they have amassed one WAR on the mound. That’s fourth worst in baseball. That’s bad. That’s the sign of a bad team. And you know what? They don’t have a lot of help coming. The— the rotation is very injured and very Ronel Blanco dependent. This is a great story, good for Ronel Blanco, and very dependent on like 48-year-old Justin Verlander. Right now, they have Cristian Javier coming back soon, which is going to help— which is gonna help a lot. I think his health and his performance bouncing back from his neck stiffness or whatever is keeping him out right now, it’s like the whole season kind of hinges on it, because José Urquidy is coming back in late May, but he has like a forearm strain, just always touch and go. And also he’s good, but has not just been amazing throughout his career. You can’t just pencil him in to be three-and-a-half WAR starter for them— or three-and-a-half ERA starter for the rest of the season. Lance McCullers is going to come back mid-season, but he’s been incredibly hurt. He would be a huge boon if he comes back and is immediately healthy and consistent, but that’s a big question. And then Luis Garcia, who’s coming off Tommy John is coming back midseason as well. I don’t know, man. More questions than answers, and they don’t have much left to trade away to get a pitcher. There’s about seven teams that would be ahead of them in line for any marquee starter who hits the trading block halfway through the season. So it’s kind of dire straits right now for the Astros if they want to even make the playoffs, let alone win their division. As Seattle looks like they have just an extremely reliable rotation to fall back on, even in times on the offensive line, which is most of the time for Seattle. And of course, the Rangers are going to wake up at some point. I mean, they’re above .500 still, but they’re going to remember that they’re a good baseball team and actually play like it for long stretches at some point this season. So the path to the playoffs for the Astros is like pretty narrow already.
ALEX: It’s getting slimmer and slimmer.
BOBBY: And if we’re gonna say reckless extrapolation, I mean, in like a month from now, it could look like their playoff percentage is like 120%.
ALEX: Right. I mean, they have to play like 5— 65, 70 baseball the rest of the way if they actually want to make a concerted effort at this. Which they can do, right?
BOBBY: Yes.
ALEX: Once again, it’s— that’s the thing, is like it’s— the Houston Astros, they have [48:01]
BOBBY: They did this last year, just in reverse. They were great for the first half of the season, and then they had a huge stinker stretch and the second half. And then when the playoffs rolled around, “Nah, we don’t care. We’re great.”
ALEX: But I think your— your point is well taken that like they’re in—
BOBBY: It’s not the same guys who are there to save the day.
ALEX: Well, it’s not the same guys, and there’s less for them to be able to flip in order to make— they’re— they have a relatively high payroll and a relatively thin farm system.
BOBBY: And you know that [48:23] does not want to go higher.
ALEX: Right. Exactly. I think maybe the biggest surprise for them this year has been Jose Abreu, right? And his just—
BOBBY: Yeah. Well, he was not very good last year, honestly.
ALEX: He was not—
BOBBY: He was okay in the playoffs.
ALEX: —but he’s not like a not Major League hitter.
BOBBY: Yeah. He’s pretty old, though.
ALEX: He is, yeah, but I think it’s— at least in my mind, he’s been a very consistent player for— for much of his career.
BOBBY: Yeah.
ALEX: Right? He is now— he accepted an optional demotion to, like, their development facility, right? Because he’s hitting like 0.99—
BOBBY: Uh-hmm.
ALEX: —this year.
BOBBY: Uh-hmm.
ALEX: Which is not to say that their playoff hopes hinge on a guy like him, but you’re kind of hoping that a player like him is— can both bring success on the field and the sort of veteran presence in the clubhouse. And I think missing a guy like that is a big piece.
BOBBY: Even like the—
ALEX: Much as I love John Singleton.
BOBBY: Even like the super bullpen has really thinned out in recent years. Like, a lot of those guys have either moved on or—
ALEX: Yeah, Josh Hader is over party.
BOBBY: Right. Phil Maton is on the Rays. You know, we— we have like a number of things that have all contributed to weakening the foundation of the Astros, which we basically just— at least I’ll speak for myself, penciled in to be a playoff team and a contender every year by default. But some of the underlying weaknesses there have really been exposed so far throughout the season. And again, like pitching, there’s nine innings in every game, you got to find somebody to throw those innings. And if your starters— we’re seeing with this with the Mets, whose bullpen has been amazing, but the starting rotation is just not holding up their end of the bargain, and that’s not sustainable. Like, you’re not going to win a ton of games if you can’t get at least three quality starts every five times you go out. So— and I don’t know where that’s coming from for the Astros. And in two months, they’re probably going to be amazing. And Ronel Blanco is going to be like a Cy Young contender, and Javier is going to have to come back, and he’ll be incredible, and we’ll all look stupid. But until that point, it’s like DEFCON 2 for them at this point.
ALEX: Yeah. Spencer Arrighetti [50:35] stand up.
BOBBY: I need to know more about him. Arrighetti, a very Italian last name.
ALEX: It is, yeah.
BOBBY: And I gotta hear. What’s going on with him?
ALEX: I don’t have the answers for you.
BOBBY: Okay. What’s next?
ALEX: Hey, Siri, what’s the deal with Spencer Arrighetti?
BOBBY: You love to ask Siri stuff just to prove that Siri can’t do it.
ALEX: Yes, exactly. I don’t actually use it in my day-to-day life.
BOBBY: This is your fourth and final thing, right?
ALEX: I believe so, yeah.
BOBBY: Okay. And this is about how the Mets are gonna win the World Series, right?
ALEX: Yes, it is.
BOBBY: Okay.
ALEX: We’re extrapolating.
BOBBY: Okay, great. This is about how Tyrone Taylor is going to win most improved. And Harrison Bader is gonna get down ballot MVP votes.
ALEX: Right. Tied ballgame.
BOBBY: Tied ballgame. Uh-hmm. You have to just do yours and then I’m gonna keep going on the Mets.
ALEX: I know.
BOBBY: Adrian Houser— talk about is over party. Adrian Houser is over party. David Stearns, what are you doing, baby?
ALEX: Yeah. But, like, was he ever actually really like that good? He was— like, have a decent year with the [51:33]
BOBBY: Yeah. Well, everybody was like, “Look at David Stearns. Look at him go. Getting Adrian Houser. Smart trade.”
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: Worst player on the team. I’m sorry, I’m just determined to be right about everything, so—
ALEX: I’m familiar. We talked about the Houston Astros, a good team that might actually be bad. Let’s talk about the Chicago White Sox, a bad team who might actually be even worse.
BOBBY: I’m so— I’m rooting for them to lose every game after the— the whole eclipse thing when they were in the path of totality, but the whole team was like, “We’re not gonna go look at the eclipse. We’re focused on today’s baseball game.”
ALEX: I didn’t even see that.
BOBBY: YOU didn’t see this?
ALEX: No.
BOBBY: Oli Marmol was like, “We don’t need distractions. We need to be going out there, and putting in the work, and trying to focus on winning baseball games.” And half the roster was like, “Yeah, I’m not gonna go out there and look at it.” It’s like you guys are— once in a lifetime opportunity. They were at Cleveland, which was in the path of totality.
ALEX: Oh, right. They actually had to po— like postpone the game a little bit.
BOBBY: Yes.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: And they were like, “We’re not doing it.” Bad karma.
ALEX: Really bad karma.
BOBBY: Listen to the universe.
ALEX: See, that’s the kind of thing that like Joe Maddon would be like, “Everyone is getting outside,” and staring directly at the eclipse for 10 minutes.
BOBBY: And holding hands.
ALEX: Absorb the sun’s rays. “This is what we need to get us back on track.” Joe Maddon, what’s he up to these days?
BOBBY: Probably nothing good.
ALEX: No.
BOBBY: Honestly. Weird guy.
ALEX: The Chicago White Sox are on pace to win, I think, 34 games right now.
BOBBY: Holy hell. That’s rough.
ALEX: We’re putting up Mets 62 numbers right now.
BOBBY: Right. Right. Fine. Hang on, hang on. Breaking news. The Blue Jays need to find a new way to use Erik Swanson out of the bullpen. They’re concerned about him tipping pitches. Just got a Google Alert.
ALEX: Every time I— we get an alert like that, where it’s like so and so maybe Tipping Pitches, my head just goes to like Patrick and SpongeBob being like, “No, I’m Tipping Pitches.” And I just can’t stop my brain. It’s an— involuntary, like knee jerk reaction.
BOBBY: That episode is the greatest cartoon episode of our lifetimes.
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: “I’m Dirty Dan. No, I’m Dirty Dan.”
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: That is good shit. Good shit. He’s wearing like the cowboy hat and then Sandy’s in hibernation, and it’s just fucking awesome stuff. So— so far two pop culture recommendations from— usually, it’s like me recommending 17 movies.
ALEX: Yeah, that we’re gonna [54:11]
BOBBY: But so far today, we have that single episode of SpongeBob, the I’m Dirty Dan episode and the Mitt Romney doc from his presidential run in 2012.
ALEX: You know, a pretty good way to understand our brains. Let’s just say it.
BOBBY: I know.
ALEX: There’s very little positive you can say about the Chicago White Sox this year.
BOBBY: Just try. Try— you can try.
ALEX: They have that crazy new drink.
BOBBY: I don’t even know what you’re referring to.
ALEX: You know, that’s— that’s like a smores like—
BOBBY: Oh, I did see it.
ALEX: —shake or something like that, right?
BOBBY: Yeah, that looks like my stomach would hurt for three days.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: I have a very weak stomach.
ALEX: Well—
BOBBY: When it comes to sugar.
ALEX: —I think you’d probably feel worse after watching a Chicago White Sox baseball game, to be quite honest.
BOBBY: Yeah, I— I don’t know, say— say something nice about the White Sox challenge, impossible. Andrew Benintendi—
ALEX: Is—
BOBBY: —do you remember he’s an okay baseball player?
ALEX: Did he?
BOBBY: Kinda. He hit a couple home runs during that little streak they went on.
ALEX: They— they’re keeping Tommy Pham employed?
BOBBY: Are the White Sox better than the Angels without Mike Trout? Who, by the way, is never going to have a healthy season ever again.
ALEX: Right. And also is going to be on the Angels forever.
BOBBY: Yup.
ALEX: No. I think the answer is no.
BOBBY: It’s closer than you want if you’re Arte Moreno, but yes, I think you’re right.
ALEX: Yeah, but the White Sox ha— but the Angels have like some decent pitching at the very least. Reid Detmers is, like, not bad.
BOBBY: Yeah, he’s fine.
ALEX: He’s fine.
BOBBY: He’s fine.
ALEX: Griffin Canning is like—
BOBBY: Yeah, he’s fine.
ALEX: —below fine.
BOBBY: Do you remember a couple years ago the draft— the Angels just drafted 27 pitchers?
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: And like two of them made it.
ALEX: Yes.
BOBBY: And it was all like, “We need pitching now. You know, we’re trying to get these guys there. And we’ll be ready to draft them all and they’re all just fine.”
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: Like, who could have predicted they’re just drafting all a bunch of fine pitchers? Fine college pitchers will turn into a bunch of just fine pitchers at the Major League level. Horribly run franchise. Horribly run.
ALEX: I— I struggle to know what to say about the White Sox. They are— they have the worst offense in baseball. They have arguably the worst pitching staff in baseball. They have no reinforcements on the way.
BOBBY: Second worst owner?
ALEX: Second worst owner? Doing his— he’s doing his part.
BOBBY: Yeah.
ALEX: I gotta say.
BOBBY: Yeah.
ALEX: He’s thrown his hat into the ring.
BOBBY: Yeah. He’s making it a close race.
ALEX: He is making it a close race.
BOBBY: New ballpark maybe?
ALEX: How do you feel about Danny Mendick? Like—
BOBBY: Not good.
ALEX: Okay.
BOBBY: Not good.
ALEX: All right. I—
BOBBY: What happened to, like, anything good with— about the White Sox? Remember when they had this [56:59] three years ago, they had this exciting, promising young lineup, at least? You know, and a couple of pitchers came in here and there, but like Eloy, Luis Robert, I guess it’s kind of— I mean, Tim Anderson. You know, they— all these guys kind of hit their 25th percentile outcome all at the same time as the owner intentionally trying to undermine anything good about the team.
ALEX: Yeah. Well, Robert is hurt, right? He has a— he has a hip injury.
BOBBY: As— as per usual.
ALEX: Yes, as per usual. Eloy has been—
BOBBY: Bad.
ALEX: —not very good. I— I mean, you’re trying to look for silver linings in guys like Gavin Sheets and Andrew Vaughn, which is fine.
BOBBY: Yeah.
ALEX: Once again—
BOBBY: Andrew Vaughn is tough, like he was only ever going to profile as a really good MLB player if he just matched his way to it.
ALEX: Right. They’re— they have— this is a fascinating lineup.
BOBBY: Fascinating is one word for it.
ALEX: Like, Tommy Pham is your two guy.
BOBBY: I mean, he’s the only good hitter on the team.
ALEX: I know.
BOBBY: They had fucking Kevin Pillar batting cleanup for like a week.
ALEX: Jesus. Kevin Pillar is still playing baseball?
BOBBY: Yeah, he’s on the White Sox.
ALEX: For the White Sox.
BOBBY: Yeah, dude, it’s bad. All right. Can I— can I talk about a good player?
ALEX: Sure. Yeah, let’s talk about a good player.
BOBBY: Alex, Mookie Betts is on pace for a 13.4 fWAR season. Now, that would be the greatest season of all time. I think— actually, I think it might be like first or second behind the Babe Ruth season. Babe Ruth, by the way. Not sure if you know, pretty good, has like the— the top four seasons ever. He has 2.9 WAR, Mookie, through just, you know, 35 games or whatever, however many the Dodgers have played. That is insane. I don’t think he’s going to keep that pace. He could, I could be wrong. He could have put up a 14 WAR season and just completely break our expectation of what is possible on a Major League Baseball field in 2024. Even if he slows down a little bit, let’s just say, reckless extrapolation Mookie Betts. It’s not even that reckless at this point. Mookie Betts puts up an 11 WAR season. There have been 2,611 fWAR seasons all time, total ever, total, of all time. In the 21st century, there have been four, 2022 Aaron Judge, and 2001, 2002, and 2004 Barry Bonds. That guy was pretty good.
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: And Mookie would be the fifth in the 21st century. I first looked at it— I predicted that he would put up a 10 WAR season— 10 fWAR season, thinking that that would be more rare. That’s been done a bunch more times, including by Mookie Betts—
ALEX: By him, yeah.
BOBBY: —in 2018.
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: So I was like, “Let’s bump it up. Let’s get those— those are rookie numbers. Let’s get those up a little bit. 11 is my lucky number. Let’s say 11 fWAR Mookie Betts.” I believe it. I believe it can happen, and it would be extremely rare throughout the course of baseball history. There’s not very many things that have only been done less than 30 times in baseball history. We talked about it all the time for perfect game, but Mookie has the chance to put up a full season of just unprecedented production. He’s unbelievable, and he just keeps getting better. He— he just— it’s— it’s reminiscent of, honestly, like 2014 era Trout, where you would look at it and be like, gun to your head, find a hole in this guy’s game, and he will just fix it by next season. It’s like that for Mookie.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: Where it’s like, you can’t— just the bat to ball skills are unbelievable. The defense is incredible. And now, he’s just turning that into just incredible slugging. He’s just hitting everything out of the park now, or for extra bases. And not to mention, he’s just playing shortstop. He’s just the Dodgers shortstop. It’s insane—
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: —what he is capable of doing.
ALEX: Well, what— what I love about this is— it is not like he— I mean, he is mashing, but it’s not like he is leading the league in home runs. It’s not like he’s on pace for like a 50 or 60 home run, right? He’s on pace for like 27, 28 home runs and, like, 32, 33 stolen bases. So, again, his second 30-30 season is, I think, within reach, the other one being that 2018 season.
BOBBY: I thought he did last year too. Maybe he didn’t steal 30.
ALEX: I don’t think so.
BOBBY: He hit 39 home runs.
ALEX: Yes.
BOBBY: It was pretty close.
ALEX: But again, it’s like he’s making improvements in his game in ways that don’t necessarily, like, jump off the page. You— he is walking more than he ever has in his career. He’s striking out less than he ever has in his career. He’s getting on basically a 470 clip, right? Like, it’s like— it’s—
BOBBY: It’s just silly.
ALEX: —it’s like 206 wRC+. Like, it’s—
BOBBY: It’s just— it’s just silly.
ALEX: —ridiculous.
BOBBY: It’s silly. And you can’t do anything with him, because it’s just Ohtani and Freeman next. So like what— you can’t pitch around him, because it’s just— it’s crazy because Ohtani is mashing too.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: Despite the elbow injury, despite all of the off the field distractions, despite, you know, the fact that he’s only engaging and he’s not pitching, which is— that he prefers to do for his, like, mental readiness. I don’t— it’s just— I can’t believe how good he is.
ALEX: I know. At this point last year, he had like a 135 wRC+. And then the year as—
BOBBY: Finished in second for MVP.
ALEX: Right, exactly.
BOBBY: It’s just like, “Okay, if we can add 70 points to that.”
ALEX: Right. Like, April is supposed to be the time of year when, like, offense is down a little bit, ball starts flying a little more as it gets warmer.
BOBBY: Yeah. He admitted that he was going for 40 last year, 40 home runs.
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: And he wanted to have a 40-home run season, something he’s never done. Especially as a guy who like— he obviously has power, but he does not have light tower power. When he was in the Home Run Derby last year, it was a lot of just like, pull into the third or fourth row kind of home runs. I think that he— watching him this year, he has kind of course corrected that. He’s not just trying to pull everything for a home run like he was for a couple months last season as he was trying to get to 40, and he admittedly so. And it’s just such a treat to watch someone who can— who is so gifted to be able to just tinker with stuff to such incredible results year to year, and always be just a baseline three-and-a-half for a WAR player. He’s stunning. He’s a stunning baseball player. Even watching him play shortstop, it looks a little clunky, especially the throws to first base have not been great.
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: This season, as he’s kind of tried to adjust to that footwork. He obviously has an incredible arm, but kind of got to dial your arm differently for right field versus shortstop.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: It’s just a delight. It’s a delight. I’ve never been in the Dodgers fan allegations.
ALEX: I love a player who can be like, “Yeah, I’m specifically adapting this part of my game because I want to get better at it.” And then just goes and does it.
BOBBY: Do it, yeah. It’s like nobody can do that.
ALEX: It’s great. Like, he almost reminds me of Ichiro a little bit—
BOBBY: Yeah.
ALEX: —in the sense of like the level of control he has over his own game.
BOBBY: Right. I’d like to get on base at a 500 clip—
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: —versus hit 40 home runs.
ALEX: Exactly.
BOBBY: This is just the choices that I get to make.
ALEX: That I get to make, exactly.
BOBBY: This is all just so fucking good.
ALEX: Oh, my God.
BOBBY: Also, I just— at this point, it’s really weird, but I— I really just do think of him as a Dodger.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: I know, obviously, he won the World Series and MVP with the Red Sox. He will forever be a very important part of that organization, and that will forever be just a really memorable and legendary story of his career— chapter of his career. But we are now approaching the zone where I think of him as Mookie Betts Dodger, and he will go into the Hall of Fame wearing a Dodger’s cap most likely.
ALEX: Yeah. There’s kind of no disputing it at this point.
BOBBY: Yeah. It’s weird. I— also by the way, I just love his stance so much.
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: If we’re just gonna get real nerdy about it, like this— just the— the way he holds his elbow up high and lets the bat rests on his shoulder. It’s a really unique-looking stance, and you wouldn’t teach it that way in terms of the setup. Obviously, by the time he’s getting ready to swing, it’s textbook. You would— you would love to be able to teach someone to swing like that. But he stands straight up like a rod in the bots. What a— what a cool guy.
ALEX: What a cool guy.
BOBBY: What a cool baseball player.
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: Mookie Betts. You heard it here first. Okay. That is the end of our Reckless Extrapolations. Was this a fun exercise?
ALEX: I think so. I think we’ve exhausted— I’ve exhausted, at least personally, the amount of actual baseball I can discuss in a single episode this year. I— how— how about extrapolating Dave Kaval tweets? Because we’re on pace for none this baseball season. So good fucking riddance.
BOBBY: Coward. Coward. He just doesn’t want to do it. If you can’t take the heat—
ALEX: He doesn’t want to— he—
BOBBY: —get out of the fucking kitchen.
ALEX: You know what he doesn’t have? It’s a [1:05:59] heart.
BOBBY: He got out of the Ghost—
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: He doesn’t, yeah, you’re right. No, he doesn’t. I thought he did for a while there when he was doing the whole Seagull bit.
ALEX: Yeah, but it was a real, like, corporate, like, poster.
BOBBY: Yeah.
ALEX: You know, he had like— he would do a, “boom,” every time at least one and stuff. And it was like, “All right, Elon. Slow your roll.”
BOBBY: Did you see Elon telling J.K. Rowling to cool it?
ALEX: Yeah. It’d be like, “Hey, tweet about some other stuff, you freak.”
BOBBY: Oh, my God. The whole world is falling apart.
ALEX: Yup.
BOBBY: What’s not falling apart is our ability to do ridiculous shit here on the Tipping Pitches Podcast. And if you would like to support that, send this episode someone that you know and say, “Hey, if you don’t want to listen to two guys eating some pretzel rolls at the top of the show, just skip ahead a couple of minutes.” If you really, really, really enjoyed what you heard, head over to patreon.com/tippingpitches and you can find out how to get more of that sweet, sweet content, Alex. Call our voicemail 785-422-5881, tipping pitchespod@gmail.com if you’d like to write us a note. Aside from that, any words of wisdom to folks? Should— should people buy— now that you have like a bit— like some hour of retrospect, do you think that people should buy the Ballpark Bites?
ALEX: I think they should for the experience. It took us about an hour and a half to get ours.
BOBBY: Would you like to admit now at this point that this was paid promotional content from Rob Manfred directly?
ALEX: I— I wasn’t going to, but yeah.
BOBBY: Okay. Thanks, everybody, for listening. We’ll be back next week.
ALEX RODRIGUEZ: Hello, everybody. I’m Alex Rodriguez. Tipping Pitches. Tipping Pitches. This is the one that I love the most. Tipping Pitches. So, we’ll see you next week. See ya!
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