Alex and Bobby check in on Bob Nightengale’s recent predictions record, then take stock of the playoff picture thus far, including whether the “right” teams made it to the division series, the most compelling matchups to watch this round, which teams are poised to come back after losing their first game, Kershaw and Verlander in October, and more. They also give Jerry Dipoto some PR lessons, make the case against Online Mascots, and dig into the Diamondbacks crossing a picket line in LA.
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Songs featured in this episode:
Tony Allen — “Secret Agent” • Equipment — “Hot, Young Doctors” • Booker T & the M.G.’s — “Green Onions”
Transcript
Tell us a little bit about what you saw and—and—and being able to relay that message to Cora when you watch Kimbrel pitching and kind of help out, so he wasn’t Tipping his Pitches. So Tipping Pitches, we hear about it all the time. People are home on the stand, what Tipping Pitches it’s all about? That’s amazing! That’s remarkable.
BOBBY: Alex, I have a bad take dramatic reading for you to start the episode.
ALEX: Right out the gate.
BOBBY: Right out the gate, waste no time. You know, I was thinking about starting the episode with a— with a conversation about Drake’s new album title, For All the Dogs, which I guess now— now, I’m just in this conversation.
ALEX: Right, yeah.
BOBBY: Now, this is how it works on pods. You just start saying stuff and then you just can’t stop. And I was gonna ask you when the last time you listened to a full Drake album is, but you could save that, because we have the bad take dramatic reading that actually has to do with baseball. And it is the MLB playoffs.
ALEX: That’s— that makes sense. As much as I would like to talk about Drake’s recent run—
BOBBY: Would you say that’s a good run? No, just kidding. Save it. Okay. Dateline Chicago. I want you to guess the author, as I read it. At what point can you identify the author?
ALEX: Okay.
BOBBY: “They are America’s best secret on a baseball diamond. They are a small Midwest Town and darn proud of it. There’s no Madison Avenue, no Rodeo Drive. The highways are filled with pickups and rusted station wagons. They reside in baseball’s smallest market with a population of just 577,000 and only the 38th largest TV market in the country, just behind Greenville, South Carolina. They are the Milwaukee Brewers.” Headline of this piece by the way, Why the Milwaukee Brewers are my World Series pick. This was a week ago that this article came out.
ALEX: Is it Bob?
BOBBY: It is Bob.
ALEX: Okay.
BOBBY: “There’s no Madison Avenue. No Rodeo Drive. The highways are filled with pick-ups and rusted station wagons.” Did you like that?
ALEX: This is—
BOBBY: That’s a little Hillbilly Elegy for you, dawg.
ALEX: You know, he— he heard you call the— the Yankees the— the flyover state fans last week and took issue with that, and was like, “I’ll show you the real silent majority.”
BOBBY: I still don’t really understand what I was trying to say with that. That was a real lost— lost metaphor. Sometimes we gotta— we gotta just admit when we’re wrong.
ALEX: Exactly. We’re volume shooters. They don’t all sink.
BOBBY: Think they also may be the last team standing when the month of October flips to November.
ALEX: Maybe.
BOBBY: It’s really rich of me to, like, read this a week later—
ALEX: Right.
BOBBY: —because I don’t have a ton of terrible predictions out there on the internet or on this podcast in the past. I did predict that the Braves would sweep the Phillies in The Ringer MLB staff predictions—
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: —heading into the NLDS. Though you know that I am rooting for the Phillies along with you, because you witnessed it firsthand last night.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: But I predicted.
ALEX: Sorry, I— I think I missed that. I— can you just say that again real quick?
BOBBY: I’m not afraid. I’m rooting for the Phillies. Let’s go Phils. A lot of people thought— that that absurd tweet that I sent after the Phillies won, a lot of people thought that was you, but it— it was in—
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: —indeed me.
ALEX: No, you’re the— the enemy— the enemy of your enemy is your friend, right?
BOBBY: I’m like deep undercover right now. Like, this is like Cold War. They send a CIA asset to Russia, like I’m in there. “Sure, Atlanta is the heavy favorite. The Houston Astros have the glossy postseason resume. The Los Angeles Dodgers are filled with stars. No matter.” New paragraph. “Really.” New paragraph. ” When you think about it, it’s really not that far-fetched.” I’m not gonna read this whole article. It’d be like— actually, because it’s too mean to Brewers fans.
ALEX: Right.
BOBBY: His team is already eliminated. But I— I think we just missed this last week. I think the article— his article was already out and we just hadn’t seen it.
ALEX: I love that like he— he approaches these articles with this sort of tone and kind of bravado of long form magazine writing, you know? Like he’s shedding—
BOBBY: It’s like Hunter S. Thompson giving his take about who’s gonna win the World Series out.
ALEX: Yeah, right. Exactly. He’s like, “The Milwaukee Brewers have a cold.” You know? He— he’s trying to really—
BOBBY: Wow. A little [4:18] action for you.
ALEX: That’s— yeah.
BOBBY: That’s [4:21] in action right there.
ALEX: That really was— I was like, “Adam Penenberg is gonna be proud of me for that one.”
BOBBY: You just opened up an alternate reality where Adam Penenberg listens to this podcast.
ALEX: Are you certain he doesn’t?
BOBBY: I guess I’m not, you know? But I— do you think we have talked about him on this podcast before? Maybe not by name. You just dropped his first— his government name on the pod.
ALEX: His govern— it’s real-time assassination coordinates. Do you think the— the listeners of Tipping Pitches are fascinated by our discussions of freshman year journalism school classes? BOBBY: Whether or not—
ALEX: Should we get some Jay Rosen hour out— up in here?
BOBBY: I don’t think I’ve ever had him for a class.
ALEX: I didn’t, either.
BOBBY: But whether or not they’re fascinated by it, it is important. It is where we met— it is—
ALEX: Uh-hmm. Part of the lore.
BOBBY: It’s where we divest part of the lore. It’s where we started developing this wonderful chemistry, you know? If you think about it— bear with me here.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: Just really hunker down, bear with me for this.
ALEX: No, I’m in. I’m sold already. Adam Penenberg is the Rob Manfred before Rob Manfred. The target of our bits and ire.
ALEX: No, you’re right. I do need to think about that one for a little longer.
BOBBY: Like, we were just sitting there doing an unrecorded podcast about him.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: And now we’re just doing a recorded podcast where we miss— basically just made fun of Rob Manfred a lot.
ALEX: He did us a great service by making his class relatively unengaging enough that we were actually able to develop this partnership—
BOBBY: Right.
ALEX: —simultaneously.
BOBBY: We were filling in the gaps.
ALEX: While reading All the President’s Men.
BOBBY: Did you read that?
ALEX: Like, the first half.
BOBBY: Nice. So you don’t know what happens with Watergate?
ALEX: No, I don’t know. I don’t know how it ends. I still don’t know.
BOBBY: It’s so weird that Richard Nixon wasn’t president anymore. He just don’t— so do you want to get back to your thoughts about Drake? Actually, save it, because we got to talk about the MLB playoffs. We’re gonna do that. We are, unfortunately, going to talk about Jerry Dipoto. And then, I guess we have to talk about the fact that Billy Eppler stepped down in the midst of MLB investigation because the Mets just— they can’t let go of the headlines.
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: You know, they have to do it. But before we do all of that, I am Bobby Wagner.
ALEX: I’m Alex Bazeley.
BOBBY: And you are listening to Tipping Pitches.
[theme]
BOBBY: Thank you to this week’s new patrons, Sebastian and Jacob. Before we start talking about the playoffs, Alex, I guess this is somewhat related to the Major League Baseball Playoffs. We’re gonna be watching along with Braves-Phillies tomorrow night. I’m trying to do my timelines right. Tomorrow night, Monday, October 9th at 6:07 p.m. Eastern. Now, this podcast is— was released on a Sunday afternoon, so I’m saying tomorrow night because it is tomorrow for me. But if you are listening to this on Monday, it’s tonight, Monday, October 9th 6:07 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. Standard Time, Daylight Time? What time zone are we in right now? What time of the year? I— I never know when it switches back and forth between Standard and Daylight, you know? When do I put EST versus EDT? One of my bosses—
ALEX: Yeah, I just drop the middle one. It’s all ET.
BOBBY: I completely agree, ET, just like— just like the film. My— one of my bosses always puts the D or the S, and he feels very confident that he knows what time— he must know what time of year it is.
ALEX: I mean, there’s got to be some sort of mnemonic device that will help you remember that, like [7:59]
BOBBY: I’m— I’m all out of space for mnemonic devices. A long and lengthy conversation about our favorite cliches last night at dinner.
ALEX: We did, yeah.
BOBBY: You never answered what your favorite one is, one pitch at a time.
ALEX: Right. See ball, hit ball.
BOBBY: I love see ball, hit ball.
ALEX: See ball, hit balls.
BOBBY: It’s really funny because it boils down, like, the baseball brain. It’s like just don’t think.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: And you know what? Not thinking is working really well for your Philadelphia Phillies right now.
ALEX: That it really is.
BOBBY: How about that for a segue?
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: Monday, October 9th, 6:07 p.m. ET, Eastern Time.
ALEX: Yes.
BOBBY: That is when that game starts. I don’t know if the— the room will be up and running right at first pitch. Alex is gonna be running back from work. I don’t know how long I can keep the show going on my own without him, but we will be more communicative about that as it is approaching. That is for members of the Tipping Pitches Patreon, we will drop it in the Slack. If you’re not in the Slack, but you are a patron, we will send it via Patreon messenger, the messenger system in the Patreon app. Okay. Now that the housekeeping is out of the way, and now that I stepped on the good segue that I already did, do you want to talk about the— the MLB playoffs, the first week of October Major League Baseball? What’s standing out?
ALEX: There were not a ton of competitive matchups in the Wild Card round. Although, I— I do think that the— that the playoffs are kind of better for it, that— all the teams that are supposed to be here are here. Like the frauds got bounced is what I’m saying.
BOBBY: So you’re saying that the Diamondbacks are more legitimate than the Brewers? I know that we know this—
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: —with hindsight, now that the Diamondbacks did sweep the Brewers and beat the Dodgers 11-2 or whatever.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: In game one of the NLDS. But you’re saying that this is right? This is how it was supposed to go? This is how people expected it to go? Because I— I would say that—
ALEX: I don’t know about expected, but I— I mean, I mentioned last week that, you know, the Diamondbacks are definitely a sort of team to watch on the NL side, that are maybe a bit stronger than some folks who haven’t watched all their games realized, even though I know I said last week that I forget about Arizona consistently.
BOBBY: You want to talk about time zones? They don’t even do Daylight Savings Time, so we’ll get all screwed up if we tried to get into the Arizona of it.
ALEX: Yeah. I really don’t want to talk about time zones. I— my brain starts to go a little haywire thinking about that.
BOBBY: I like time zones, I’m into it. I’m into the concept.
ALEX: Pro time zone.
BOBBY: I think it’s become very invoked to be like, “Time zones are stupid,” you know? “Daylight Savings Time is bad.” I’m like, “I think it’s not that bad.”
ALEX: Well, I think time zone makes sense and— did you want to keep talking about the playoffs?
BOBBY: No, I want to talk about the new Drake album. I— I see what you’re saying. I think it’s nice to have one team in there that maybe people didn’t expect, or that a lot of people picked against, in— in the case of the Diamondbacks. I think we may— maybe could have afforded like one more upset in the first round, just for the chaos of it.
ALEX: Marlins.
BOBBY: Well, no, because I think that Phillies-Braves is the one matchup that I would not have wanted to step on by having an upset in the first round, because I think it’s— previously thought it was going to be the best series in the playoffs, you know? Save the World Series matchup that’s hard to predict early on, but the best series that you could, like, reliably feel like what’s going to happen. And I just don’t think the Marlins, especially down to pitchers, are really a competitive team in this playoff field.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: And I think they proved that, and the Phillies took care of business. But I think maybe having one more upset in the first round could have helped.
ALEX: Yeah, but I don’t know who I would have looked at, like—
BOBBY: I guess that’s true. Texas— Texas-Baltimore is a much better matchup than— although that is an upset, though. So what have you been talking about? That was an upset.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: I guess there’s two upsets now.
ALEX: Yeah, another year of Rays schadenfreude.
BOBBY: Yeah. So let me ask you that then, your characterization of the— the people who should be there or are there still. So how do you slot the Rays into that characterization? Because I think a lot of people expected the Rays to take care of Texas. Texas comes in, they just blew the division in kind of bumbling fashion. They were so good for the first two-thirds of the year. They really fell off, they have a lot of injuries. You know, they’re— they’re struggling to— they’re struggling to put together, like, the playoff pitching rotation that they wanted to. And yet they come in, and they just steamrolled the Rays who won 99 games and our quote-unquote like “built for October” the way that they mani— the way that they manage their roster. So did you just not buy into any of that stuff?
ALEX: I mean, the Rays did— well, they did their blueprint, right? They made it to the playoffs and got bounced. Like, that’s their thing these days. I don’t know— like, I don’t know that I believe the whole “built for October” thing exactly.
BOBBY: Yeah.
ALEX: I think they’re a good team, but I think they haven’t really figured out how to— I mean, they— they dealt with a deluge of injuries this year, right? And they also had a lot of kind of young players who maybe didn’t all mesh at the same time, so—
BOBBY: They also— I mean, they also don’t have the best player on their team on the roster, because—
ALEX: Right.
BOBBY: —he is on the commissioner’s exempt list for some very, very serious allegations. Wander Franco who we’re talking about, who we never really talked about on this podcast, didn’t really talk about in the context of the playoffs, because it’s not something that should really overshadow this moment in the MLB calendar. But that is obviously a large factor into why the 99-win Rays lineup, at least, does not look like a 99-win team.
ALEX: Yeah. Yeah. I don’t know. I just— I don’t know that the— the Rangers necessarily feel like underdogs in the— in the way that a team like the Marlins do necessarily, right? Like the—
BOBBY: Okay. Yeah.
ALEX: —Rangers, I can look at their team and say, “Okay, I see how they— they made it here. Maybe they don’t stack up against the Orioles or the Astros in the same way. But you can [13:59] and see how a couple good bounces might help things go their way in the playoffs.”
BOBBY: Yeah, I mean, I think they— I think they do actually match up really well against the Orioles, but I— I see what you’re saying and that they are not— they’re sort of fall— they had fallen out of favor a little bit, and then they get hot in October, and then you see, like, why everybody was like, “Oh, this team is great for the first four months of the season.”
ALEX: Right? It doesn’t feel like an unearned upset, right, where the other team necessarily sort of just fell flat on their face.
BOBBY: I think the Rangers are kind of great. Like, I look at their lineup and in the context of October where— you know, Jordan Shusterman always repeats this phrase and he said where he had heard it from for the first time and where he ran it back, and I forget where it originated. But he always— he always says the phrase on Baseball BBQ, like the blueprint for 27 outs or something like that or— or like getting to 27 outs in an— in a playoff game, because it’s not like the regular season where you have to get 27 outs, but then you also have to get 27 outs tomorrow, and you also have to get 27 outs for 27 of the next 30 days.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: You know, like, you really just have to get 27 outs this day, otherwise, the whole complexion of the series will change. And I think that— I looked at the Rangers and it was like, “Oh, that’s gonna be challenging. Their bullpen is not good, and they lost two of their best— three of their best starters, really. Max Scherzer not going to make it back for this round [15:36] him out for the year. John Gray who was like— he’s John Gray, but also was very solid in the regular season for them and he was another free agent signing that they had brought on to bolster a rotation that they had trouble developing internally. And you look at that, and you’re like, “They’re in trouble.” And then you realize that the other team also has to get 27 outs against their roster.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: And it’s like, “Okay, here comes Corey Seager again. Here comes Adolis Garcia.
ALEX: Yup.
BOBBY: You know, here comes Marcus Semien.
ALEX: Here comes Evan Carter.
BOBBY: Here comes Evan Carter, who is apparently Barry Bonds now. And so they feel very much like the team— like a team designed to be like, “Well, you forgot about us.” You know?
ALEX: Right. Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: Like you forgot about how Corey Seager is the best hitter in baseball. And then, I mean, you look on the other side of the bracket— or on the top half of the bracket on that side and you’re like— you see the Astros and you remember, “Oh, yeah, this team— this is a team that is completely opt— actually optimized for October, not the way that people talk about the Rays being optimized for October.
ALEX: Yes, definitely.
BOBBY: What were the other things that stood out to you from the first round?
ALEX: Minnesota Twins, not fraudulent. I know— I know they lost game one to the Astros,
BOBBY: Not fraudulent, though.
ALEX: But not fraudulent, man. Oh, that pitching, they did so well during the regular season.
BOBBY: Minnesota Twins beat the fraudulent allegations.
ALEX: They really did. And, you know, we already— already had discourse about like, you know, pitchers getting pulled, right? There was the Jose Berrios had started for the Toronto Blue Jays and had, I think, only thrown 40 something pitches, and then— and then got pulled in the fourth in favor of Yusei Kikuchi who ended up surrendering two runs to the Twins. And all I have to say about that is it kind of doesn’t matter how many runs your pitchers give up if you can’t score any.
BOBBY: Yes.
ALEX: It kind of boils down to that.
BOBBY: Yup.
ALEX: You can make all the wrong decisions on the mound, but often [17:39]
BOBBY: This is like— I was watching SportsCenter last night, just like as I was winding down for the evening as I often do, and they were doing a whole breakdown of the Bryce Harper homer off Spencer Strider, and it was cool and it was fun to watch. And I was like, “You just spent 90% of the segment breaking down a homerun that made a 1-0 game a 2-0 game, and then they went on to win 3-0, so that homerun, like, actually literally did not matter to the outcome of the game.
ALEX: Did not move a needle.
BOBBY: But it was funny. But they were doing it in a con— and after the game, on the broadcast, they did this too. They did a— Pedro did a whole breakdown of like all the sliders that Strider threw to— to Bryce and how the only one that he threw in the zone, Harper hit out of the park, which is like a cool thing to see Pedro Martinez breakdown.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: And then it was like— the conclusion of it was like, “Oh, Harper has Strider’s number.” And I’m like, “That might be true, but also Spencer Strider only gave up one earned run over seven innings and had, like, nine strikeouts, and you would call that a gem if it weren’t—
ALEX: Yeah, exactly.
BOBBY: —for the fact that the Braves got shut out for the first time since, like, July. Anyway, back to your point about Berrios.
ALEX: No, I—
BOBBY: The— the Twins, in general.
ALEX: Yeah, I mean, I just— this is sort of what I mean about just the— the teams exercising their very real strengths in the Wild Card round. Like, we saw the reason why the Diamondbacks are here. We saw the reason why the Twins are here. Diamondbacks are the only ones who’ve been able to carry it over into the DS so far, but it’s still very early. So I don’t know. I mean, what— were there anything that— were there any things that really stood out to you while— while watching either— either the Wild Card round or the— the first games of the Division Series?
BOBBY: It was kind of boring. The Wild Card round specifically.
ALEX: Uh-huh.
BOBBY: Can we get a— like a couple series going to three games?
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: Like it feels like during the regular season, most series split one-one and then whoever takes the rubber match—
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: —wins the series. But then, for the last two years of this format, there have been eight series and only one of them has gone three games.
ALEX: So you’re telling me that expanding the playoffs to include slightly above average teams is maybe not prudent to winnowing down the field?
BOBBY: Yeah, but it doesn’t even, like, always shake out that way, because it’s not always the team that’s favored to win that’s winning in two games. Sometimes it’s the underdog team that’s winning in two games. It’s just weird that it’s always two games. Like, the only series that has gone three games is Mets-Padres, and frankly, I wish the Mets lost the first two games and just spared me the whole Joe Musgrove—
ALEX: Naturally, yeah.
BOBBY: —year thing, whatever. Like, I wish that they didn’t give me hope, even the game that they won was not entertaining. That whole series stunk. So, like, if that’s the only thing that we have to show for changing the playoff format for getting rid of the Wild Card, which was the thing— the one thing on the baseball calendar that felt like significantly different than the rest of the season, putting the— boiling the pressure of your whole season down to one baseball game, it— it felt wrong. Even as you’re watching it like that— like a team season could be over just in one day, but it was at least entertaining for that reason. And now, it still feels kind of wrong that a team’s season is over in two days, and it’s not as entertaining.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: So we need to figure out some sort of happy medium where— I don’t know if that’s just like allowing a few more years for things to shake out differently, to get a couple more entertaining series, to get some game threes that are— that have that level of intensity as some of the one-game elimination Wild Card games had. But right now, I feel like we’re kind of getting the worst of both worlds. And that’s unfortunate because I did enjoy seeing some of those ex— quote-unquote “expanded” playoff teams get their shot. Like the Diamondbacks would not have been in the playoffs if it were not for that. And now, they’re in pole position against the Dodgers, their division rival. By the way, real bubbling storyline here, the Dodgers potentially losing back-to-back seasons to NL East teams that they have absolutely humiliated and owned over the last decade. That’s tough. That’s tough scenes. Absolute tough scenes. So I— I am a little bit disappointed in the Wild Card round. That being said, I think that’s probably enough talk about the Wild Card round because we are in the Division Series round. We— every series has played one game so far. Astros are up, Rangers are up, Diamondbacks are up. and Phillies are up. Is it still the Phillies-Braves series that you think is the most exciting, intriguing, and worth watching? And I know we’re gonna be doing a watch-along for that because it’s like the most conveniently timed one. And also because—
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: —of your Phillies fandom. But—
ALEX: Naturally.
BOBBY: —through one game in each of these series, is that the one that you’re still the most— that you think still garners the most, like, attention and intrigue?
ALEX: I think so just because it feels sort of like the— a really well-balanced series and just like a remarkable matchup of vibes, right? Just like the best vibes in the playoffs versus the worst vibes in the playoffs. And—
BOBBY: Old.
ALEX: I— I don’t—
BOBBY: So you’re saying like the vibes of the org or the vibes of the team?
ALEX: Yeah. Yeah. Well, I guess a little— a little bit of both, but—
BOBBY: Yeah. I think the Braves roster itself has, like, fine vibes.
ALEX: Has like— has like good vibes, yeah.
BOBBY: Like if they were wearing Twins jerseys, you’d be like, “I love this team. This team has great vibes.”
ALEX: Yes, 100 %.
BOBBY: But I see what you’re saying. It’s impossible to divorce them from the vibes of the whole—
ALEX: Or like the vibes of the— the stadium that they play in, you know? Like know—
BOBBY: That is heinous.
ALEX: Like knowing what you’re gonna hear—
BOBBY: Yeah.
ALEX: —when they play home games is like— I— I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the fact that Blooper was single-handedly— handedly getting into an argument with every single Phillies fan on Twitter in the lead up to this— this Blooper is their ill-conceived—
BOBBY: Fanatic rip-off.
ALEX: —fanatic— yeah. Just a whitewashed fanatic—
BOBBY: Literally.
ALEX: —is what it is, right?
BOBBY: Yeah.
ALEX: And can I just— the whole like mascot Twitter, like, shit-posting thing—
BOBBY: It’s awful.
ALEX: —is so beyond the pale.
BOBBY: So bad.
ALEX: Like if you’re— if the— if the person running your mascot’s account is, like, posting like
Some, you know, mid-20s Barstool Acolyte, like you have lost the plot completely. Like this— the mascot experience can be left at the ballpark.
BOBBY: I— that’s a great take. Unfortunately, that’s never gonna happen.
ALEX: Oh, it’s never gonna happen.
BOBBY: Because there’s too much— too much opportunity for digital brands and [24:23]
ALEX: Yeah, exactly.
BOBBY: Come on, reach,
ALEX: But even like—
BOBBY: Reach.
ALEX: —even the—
BOBBY: Digital ballpark, what about that?
ALEX: Even the best mascot— “best,” quote-unquote, mascot accounts, like, know that they really—
BOBBY: Rank your top five mascot accounts. Actually, wait. First, rank— rank your top five Drake albums. No, just kidding. We’ll save that for the end.
ALEX: We got to talk to him.
BOBBY: Yeah, we’ll save it for the end.
ALEX: And just like even the best ones know that they can just post, like, innocuous— or, like, innocent ballpark content. And even then—
BOBBY: Right. Like, “Love being out at the yard last night with all of my people,” and like a couple of photos,
ALEX: And even then, like, you start toeing the line a little bit, like if you look at the Mets Twitter account and the replies to anything that features Mrs. Met, you know?
BOBBY: Well, that’s a whole different ballgame we— that we cannot open that can of worms right now. I just— I just totally agree with you.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: I totally agree. It’s like— it’s like they think they have like valuable IP in the mascot.
ALEX: Right.
BOBBY: And they’re like, “Well, we have to distribute this valuable IP because this can make us money on sponsored posts and advertisements.”
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: I just think it’s funny that anybody thinks that they can hold their ground against Philadelphia fans.
ALEX: I know.
BOBBY: It’s just a losing battle. Like you’re just not— that’s nuclear warfare. You’re not— no one’s gonna win that. Trust me. 27 years of my life have proven that to me. The Phillies-brave series is fascinating from a baseball analysis perspective, because seemingly, everybody has concluded that these two teams are evenly matched, including yourself not five minutes ago on this podcast. Including, gotta say, like me right now at this point, like it does seem like the Phillies play the Braves very well. The actual players do not fear the players on the other side of the field. However, that is a very hard thing to quantify. Things— and— but— and on the flip side, the things that you can quantify, the Braves are just better. They’re a better team. They had a better season. They finished 14 games clear of the Philadelphia Phillies who easily got the top Wild Card spot. They finished 150 runs better in run differential than the Phillies. They had an .845 OPS as a team, the whole team. 50 points clear of the second-best team, 80 points clear of the Phillies. And yet they got shut out in the first game. So from a baseball analysis perspective, this is a fascinating series because it’s basically just like the proof is in the pudding that nothing matters when it comes to October and there’s— it’s a fool’s errand and it’s basically a crapshoot. It’s a really entertaining crapshoot when you have stars on both sides of the field, and both teams have earnestly given themselves a chance by maximizing the potential of their roster by investing in it. Now, the Braves have invested in different ways. There’s a whole interesting dynamic playing out amongst the NL East rivals right now. The Phillies under Dombrowski are very much just like spend, spend, spend, get good established players. The Braves are doing their own thing where they’re trying to sign their core at cheaper contracts. But earlier, I thought Hannah Kaiser wrote a really great piece in Yahoo about that, about just how did this happen. I still don’t really understand how it happened, but I thought Hanna put, like, every contextual element in its proper light for how a thing like this could happen with an organization. And then, of course, you know, the Mets are trying to do a similar thing to the Phillies and, like, spend, get established players. And also, they’re trying to, like, have the best of both worlds almost. They’re, like, trying to develop internally and spend at the top, like the Dodgers do. So there’s a fascinating storyline going on from that perspective, and it’s just great baseball. It’s just great baseball when these two teams come together. They do have very opposite energies.
ALEX: Yeah. Well, and also like very opposite and complementing strengths, right? The Phillies rotation, and just pitching staff in general, is incredible. I mean, like one of the best in baseball right now. And as you mentioned, the— the Braves offense is one of the best in, like, the last two decades.
BOBBY: Or like the last 10 decades.
ALEX: If— if not— yes. Yeah, exactly. So which all lends itself to, as you mentioned, I think, a very entertaining series and it’s why the one— and it’s why it’s the one that I’m sort of gravitating towards the most. Although, I— I do think the Rangers and Orioles is— is going to be an interesting one as well. They do sort of feel like the two archetypes of team construction right now, right, which is go out and make your free agent splashes and complement that with young players who you’ve developed, right, in the Rangers versus the Orioles sort of let’s build the Juggernaut internally.
BOBBY: Yeah, pro— let’s— let’s hug these prospects—
ALEX: Exactly.
BOBBY: —and hope that they turn out.
ALEX: Yeah. So, like, I— I’m gonna be watching that series with a lot of fascination, not necessarily be— like I think we’re past the point of any one team’s success or failure in the playoffs being a referendum on, like, that team construction strategy.
BOBBY: We couldn’t be past that because that’s our whole thing.
ALEX: But like—
BOBBY: It’s our whole thing, bro.
ALEX: No, but I— but, like, I— I also recognize that it’s the— it is the kind of thing that persists, right? It’s hard to look at that series—
BOBBY: Yes.
ALEX: —and not think some very smart people are going to take some very dumb takeaways from this.
BOBBY: Well, including us if you’re gonna be—
ALEX: Right. Yeah, exactly.
BOBBY: We’re not that smart and we’re gonna—
ALEX: We’re [30:01] out of it.
BOBBY: Well, you just did it with the Rays 15 minutes ago.
ALEX: I know. I know.
BOBBY: You were like the ratio doesn’t work. I love— I love the Billy Beane shit doesn’t work in October just being— that just the different sequels of that—
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: —that we’ve had over decades now at this point, “Shit doesn’t work in October.” You know what’s interesting about Rangers-Orioles that you reminded me of just now? I think it’s fascinating that Elias running the Orioles saw the Astros shit work to the tune of two World Series and two other appearances. And then just decided to not do some of those strategies that they implemented, like to not go to— to get the Justin— to— to get the Justin Verlander type, to not go get more relievers, to not do this, to not do that. It’s just— I find it fascinating. I’m curious to see if it’s going to work out.
ALEX: Yeah, I mean, I do think the Orioles are, like, earlier on in their win— you know, they are like—
BOBBY: I don’t think they’re earlier than 2017 Astros. They’re better than that team was. At least they won more games.
ALEX: I mean— yes. Yeah, you’re right. I— I think you can see the shift in organizational philosophy from the way that they talk about the teams in public, right, in just—
BOBBY: Yeah.
ALEX: —like kind of— at every trade deadline and every offseason saying—
BOBBY: This is not the year.
ALEX: “—Wait, wait ’till next year.”
BOBBY: Yeah.
ALEX: So like— and, you know, I think a lot of that comes from ownership and— and what those directives are and, like, how you actually can spend the money that you have.
BOBBY: I will say to sort of divorce this a little bit from, like, the team construction of the Orioles and the Rangers. That game itself, the Orioles are by no means down and out—
ALEX: No.
BOBBY: —in the way that it felt like the Dodgers were. And that doesn’t mean that I think the Dodgers are, like, eliminated now. But the takeaway is from the various game ones. It’s not like the Orioles were completely dominated. They had a lackluster performance against Andrew Heaney. Heaney? Heaney? Heaney?
ALEX: Right. Among those.
BOBBY: That’s the Yankees legend, Andrew Heaney.
ALEX: That’s right.
BOBBY: But then later in that game, they had some life. They made it close.
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: They weren’t blown out. So I think that that series will be close. I think that it will go five.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: At least four. Hopefully five. I’d love to see—
ALEX: Definitely no more than five, though.
BOBBY: They’ll go 20 games. The Astros looked like they were dominating the Twins. And it’s just gonna be classic Astros shit.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: And then Hector Neris happened.
ALEX: Hmm.
BOBBY: And Royce Lewis happened, who is unbelievable and clicking on all cylinders— cylinders right now. If you had to— well, you can say whatever you like about whether the Twins can win.
ALEX: Thank you.
BOBBY: If you had to pick one team that lost their game one to be the most likely to come back and win their series, who would you pick?
ALEX: I think I’d probably go with the Orioles, seeing their display in the first game. I— there’s such a well-rounded team. I think it’s a— I mean, it’s a travesty that we’re not getting to see Felix Batista in these—
BOBBY: Yeah.
ALEX: —playoffs. Like I just—
BOBBY: Yeah.
ALEX: That would really, I think, shift the balance of things kind of dramatically.
BOBBY: I saw a graphic yesterday during the game. Now, this is like small sample and the ERA is not the most indicative, but that their bullpen ERA got better after he got hurt, which is just like nonsense. That’s just such bullshit.
ALEX: Sure, yeah.
BOBBY: That’s real charmed life stuff right there.
ALEX: It really is.
BOBBY: For Baltimore fans.
ALEX: I— I’m— but— but also like— but also like the— the Braves, right? Like, you know, like—
BOBBY: Yeah.
ALEX: And who’s the one who can just like—
BOBBY: Is it weird that I think—
ALEX: —pull it all together.
BOBBY: Right. Is it weird that I think all four teams who lost game one could win the series?
ALEX: Conceivably do it, yeah.
BOBBY: That’s exciting. That’s— that’s much more exciting than the Wild Card round, I think, where all four teams that lost game one, I was like, “They are cooked. They are deeply cooked.”
ALEX: Yeah, exactly. Well, and that’s kind of why that— like, I’m not sure necessarily that any of the eliminated teams that are here right now— or I’m not sure that any of the eliminated teams I would rather have been here—
BOBBY: In their spot.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: We haven’t said one man’s name who probably merits discussion—
ALEX: Okay.
BOBBY: —from their performance in game one on Saturday.
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: The man’s name is Clayton Kershaw. I’m just kind of— I’m just kind of sad—
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: —about that performance. It was just kind of hard to watch, not because I’m particularly fond of the Dodgers, though I am. But I wrote in— in The Ringer divisional series preview— I think— I think actually the— the verbiage that we use on the site was entrance survey, like the opposite of an exit survey.
ALEX: Right, yeah.
BOBBY: We’re going in. Survey going in and maybe we’re— survey coming out too, but we’re definitely surveying going in. I wrote that— my most intriguing storyline was whether or not Kershaw still has it, you know? Dealing with shoulder injury velocity down, years and years of nagging injuries weighing on him, and years and years of questions about his per— playoff performance weighing on him. And then those questions were just immediately answered within the course of five minutes. He doesn’t have it right now, and the playoff narratives are just going to continue to run wild, and that’s never going away. And that’s kind of sad from a enjoyment perspective because you much— it would have made for a much better narrative, but also just a much better viewing experience had they not lost the game before they got an out, basically.
ALEX: It’s not enjoyable to watch. It— it similarly made me sad, a reminder of why every October, my— my stomach is just in knots for 30 straight days because I— I don’t enjoy watching people— Clayton Kershaw on October 6th said via J. P. Hoornstra, “I’d much rather fail on the biggest stages than not get to be here at all.” And boy, did you get your wish, Clayton.
BOBBY: Be careful what you wish for, my friend.
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: How— where do you stand on that dichotomy? Would you much rather fail on the biggest stages or would you rather not be there at all?
ALEX: I— I’d rather not be there. I’m cool. I’m good with that.
BOBBY: Alex said, “I’ll play 162 And I’ll go home and watch like everybody else.”
ALEX: Easy.
BOBBY: Man, maybe you do want to be on the A’s.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: Yeah, that’s the life. Baseball player on the A’s, you know? Terrible facilities, low pay, terrible owner.
ALEX: Easy. No pressure.
BOBBY: Might have to move to Las Vegas. Great— great life. It was sad. It was a bummer. Did you ever figure out the first name of E. Sheehan? I did.
ALEX: Oh.
BOBBY: I’m just asking if you—
ALEX: You did?
BOBBY: —if you went and looked that up after you—
ALEX: I— I didn’t look it up.
BOBBY: We were sitting there watching the game and it was on mute, because we were having a dinner party. And we were just guessing what his first name could be, and both of us were just like, “I just can’t think of anything besides Ed.”
ALEX: Ed.
BOBBY: “Ed Sheehan.”
ALEX: Uh-hmm. But that’s not it?
BOBBY: Do you wanna take a gan— a gander, a guess?
ALEX: Eric?
BOBBY: No.
ALEX: Okay.
BOBBY: You wanna guess again?
ALEX: Ezekiel?
BOBBY: You wanna a double or not— triple or nothing? It is Emmet, Emmet Sheehan.
ALEX: I— I wasn’t— I wasn’t gonna get that.
BOBBY: I don’t know if it’s one or two T’s. We’ll just have to wait to find out. He did good in his little mop-up duty.
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: He held down the fort, you know?
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: He only gave them a couple more runs. Kept them within— kept them within three grand slams winning the game.
ALEX: Ouch.
BOBBY: Yeah, it was tough. I mean, they probably will just flush it and win the series.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: But whatever.
ALEX: I— every time I watch regular season Clayton Kershaw, I’m like, “This is the best baseball player I’ve ever seen.”
BOBBY: Yeah.
ALEX: And every time I watch playoff Justin Verlander, I’m like, “This is the best baseball player I’ve ever seen.”
BOBBY: Important to know, playoffs before the World Series, though.
ALEX: Playoffs before the World Series.
BOBBY: Because he stinks—
ALEX: Because when he gets to the World Series, he stinks.
BOBBY: Although he got his first World Series win last year—
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: —against the Phillies.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: Kind of a struggle. So you’re— you— you think Orioles, the team that lost game one that can come back and win the series? I think—
ALEX: I— I don’t know. I mean, they all— they all can to some degree, but I— I think if there’s one who is going to do, it’s probably them.
BOBBY: I agree. I’m gonna power rank them in terms of order, I think could come back and win the series after losing game one.
ALEX: Okay.
BOBBY: Number one, Braves.
ALEX: Yeah. Okay,
BOBBY: Number two, Orioles.
ALEX: Uh-huh.
BOBBY: Number three, Twins.
ALEX: Ooh. Ooh [38:31]
BOBBY: Number four, Dodgers. Dodgers are cooked.
ALEX: Dodgers cooked.
BOBBY: Their vibes are really bad, you know? Like, I— I also think that this team is not nearly as good as all of the statistics show, all of the record, like all of the— the amount of wins, the run differential, whatever.
ALEX: I think they’re pretty good. T
BOBBY: They’re pretty good, but they’re like the fifth best Dodgers team of the last six years.
ALEX: I know.
BOBBY: It’s weird. It’s a weird feeling. I don’t know. They just— they seem to be— they also have the worst pitching left in the field.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: Like Kershaw started game one with a bum shoulder because there was no one who was better.
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: There was no better option. It wasn’t like, “We gave it to Clayton because he’s—”
ALEX: “Because he’s our guy.”
BOBBY: “Because he’s our ace and he’s a franchise legend, and he’s— we feel great about him in this current moment.” And this is not Clayton— this is not Kershaw’s fault. I mean, he is legitimately, obviously hurt. He has nothing and he—
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: —has nothing to offer at the moment and he tried, and it failed. And it’s not like they put Walker Buehler on ice for game two, like he’s out. Like, we’re gonna see some Lance Lynn action in this— in this series.
ALEX: Hell yeah.
BOBBY: Joe Kelly will be on the mound in this series, you know, so I don’t know. I hate to say it, but I think all four teams could come back and win, but I weirdly feel better about the Twins doing it than the Dodgers. Okay. Anything else to say about the Division Series round before we mop— mop up our own stories from the past week that have nothing to do with the playoffs really? The real reason I believe in the Diamondbacks is because they have the devil on their side. The snakes, they’re crossing picket lines. You know, they’re wearing black and red.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: They have the devil on their side [40:08]
ALEX: This is— also relevant to a conversation we had last night about the existence of the devil, although maybe that’s an off-air—
BOBBY: I’ll put it on mic, I’m not afraid.
ALEX: Okay.
BOBBY: Do you believe in the devil? You didn’t answer the question last night. You were just kind of like, “Oh, good point. Oh, that’s cool. No, funny.”
ALEX: I know, because—
BOBBY: You were just kind of dodging it.
ALEX: Yeah. Well—
BOBBY: Catholic school education that you have, do you believe in the devil? Go on the record.
ALEX: I mean, after going to Catholic school, I believe in the devil, yeah.
BOBBY: It really wasn’t like do you believe in the devil was not the conversation. That was like— that was weeks ago on The Big Picture Podcast.
ALEX: Right.
BOBBY: The— the conversation was, do you believe in possession?
ALEX: Right? Like, how do you think the devil manifest itself?
BOBBY: Like go— like possession— yeah, exorcism sort of stuff.
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: This is a real can of worms.
ALEX: This is quite a can of worms.
BOBBY: Just go on the record right now. You don’t have to explain. I believe in the devil. She’s in this room with us right now. It’s my dog who’s about to bark.
ALEX: There— there it is. No. No devil.
BOBBY: No devil. No exorcisms?
ALEX: No devil, no exorcisms, but Jerry Dipoto.
BOBBY: Before we do Jerry Dipoto, do you want to do your top five Drake albums? Last Drake album that had no skips?
ALEX: Drake album with no skips?
BOBBY: I’ve already forgotten the name of the new Drake album. What is it? For All the Dogs?
ALEX: Right. For All the dogs I loved Before. Drake’s album is on like— like Rays in the playoffs run right now.
BOBBY: Just— he’s not cooking?
ALEX: Just whiffs.
BOBBY: He’s onto nothing. Just all whiffs. But the numbers are there, you know? The analytics are there to back him up.
ALEX: I don’t even know if that’s true.
BOBBY: It’s all about streaming hours, dude. Consumption hours.
ALEX: True.
BOBBY: The almighty Spotify consumption hours in the sky. Okay, let’s talk about Jerry Dipoto. Actually, let’s hear Jerry Dipoto—
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: —in his own words first.
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
JERRY: If you go back and you look in a decade, those teams that win 54% of the time always wind up in the postseason, and they more often than not wind up in World Series. You know, so there’s your— your bigger picture process. Nobody wants to hear the goal this year is we’re going to win 54% of the time. Because sometimes 54% is— is some— one year you’re gonna win 60%, another year you’re gonna win 50%. You know, it’s whatever it is. But over time, that type of mindset gets you there. If what you’re doing is focusing year to year on, what do we have to do to win the World Series this year? You might be one of the teams that’s laying in the mud and can’t get up for another decade. So we’re actually doing the fan base a favor and asking for their patience to win the World Series while we continue to build a sustainably good roster.
BOBBY: I’m gonna let you cook on this one first.
ALEX: That little chuckle he does—
BOBBY: Should we work that into like our— like a soundbite or intro?
ALEX: After he knows he says something—
BOBBY: “We’re actually doing—
ALEX: —that’s, like, offensive.
BOBBY: “We’re actually doing the fan base a favor, you know?”
[laughter]
BOBBY: I have some advice for Jerry, actually. Before we launch into the merits—
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: —of what he said, before we break down the fact that no team that wins 87 games ever wins the World Series, but that’s okay. Sometimes you gotta win 60% of the games, sometimes. You just have to magically do it.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: You can’t say that and chuckle when you are, like, handsome with that haircut. You just can’t. You can’t get away with it. People are gonna be so mad. He looks so smug when he does it. He’s like a very fit former Major League Baseball player with a fancy little haircut that has a lot of gel in it. If he was just some anonymous dude who had, like, come up through the analytics department, I think people would be less mad.
ALEX: Absolutely. You can’t come out there and say that as the guy who runs the baseball team, like I just—
BOBBY: Right. And who, like, needs to inspire confidence in the baseball team [44:17]
ALEX: Exact— like so many—
BOBBY: And the fan base, rather.
ALEX: —so many GMs these days just don’t have that background about talking to fans about baseball as if they are among them. You know, there— there’s not a lot of— like that PR training, it’s just not there. It’s all very much in line with what Rob Manfred’s administration has kind of looked like.
BOBBY: Yeah.
ALEX: Which is just kind of like say the things you’re seeing and experiencing and doing, and hope that people will reward you for being forthcoming with them. And I just— no fan wants to hear, “Hey, we’re actually doing you a favor by trying to win the 88 games every single year, so that—”
BOBBY: So that—so that we never win 74.
ALEX: So that we never win 74. And, like, I’m not the only person to point out that the last time the Mariners were in a similar position in that like ’94 to 2004 run. You remember that when the Mariners were good?
BOBBY: Yup.
ALEX: And they won 54% of the time— actually, sorry. They won 55% of the time.
BOBBY: Yeah, but they also— okay, here’s the thing. Number one, I agree with your assessment that this is just a GM having a moment of honesty about how everybody in the sport now thinks.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: If you’re— if anyone who’s paying attention, anyone who listens to this podcast knows that we’ve been railing against this sort of, like, sustainability mindset that leads to basically refusing to put your chips into the center of the table, and exciting thing for fans, and bear— like, that’s important to note, that what GMs think is unsustainable and dangerous are things that fans want, going out and getting good players, making big trades, trying to win at all. That is what fans want. Fans don’t want 87 wins. No fan that you meet on the street is like, “I hope that we win 87 games this year.”
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: “And if we win 89, I hope we only win 85 next year.” Like nobody— you think that the Mariners fans who— you think that Mariners fans after the 2001 team that set the record for wins were like, “That’s great, but we got a little bit ahead of the— too far above the mean. You know, now we’re going to regress because of this.” Like that’s not how it works necessarily with all of the different factors that go into how many games you win in every— in any given year. So I agree with your assessment that he is just voicing a thing that all GMs feel. I think the reason that this went so viral is because it came on the heels of them literally giving— getting eliminated while winning more—
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: —than that amount of games.
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: And not making the playoffs. And having just made the playoffs for the first time in 20 years last year, and he’s been running the team for eight years. So if he wants to run it sustainably over a decade and win 54% of his games, I saw someone point—
ALEX: It’s time to get to work.
BOBBY: I saw someone point this out. He has two more years in the next few years, he has to win 104 games in each year.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: So time to push those chips in, Jerry.
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: Otherwise, you’re not hitting your mark.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: And you don’t— according to your metrics, don’t stand a chance. And then of course, he’s just lying, number one. Like teams— teams don’t win 54% of their games. He’s saying sometimes you have to win 60% of your games.
ALEX: Right. He’s saying if you can put together—
BOBBY: Right.
ALEX: —an above average team that sometimes wins a little more and sometimes wins a little less, more likely than not, you’ll end up in a position for contention.
BOBBY: Yes. That is what he’s saying. But I feel like that part of what he said felt a little bit hand waved by him intentionally and was kind of missed in favor of people being frustrated that the “We’re doing you a favor” comment, which—
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: —obviously is such a, you know—
ALEX: A little condescending.
BOBBY: —knife to the gut and so condescending. But in order for them to win 60 games, which is 6% more than 54, which doesn’t sound like a lot, that takes them from being an 87-win team to a 97-win team. Are the Mariners a 97-win team? Do they have a 97-win team roster? Have they done anything to add the players to make up those 10 extra wins in a division that is extremely competitive, that has been dominated by a dynasty for the last six years in the Houston Astros? Have they done that? Are they going to do that? Are they going to spend the money to do that? Are they going to make the trades to do that? I mean, I think earnestly Dipoto is not the worst offender here. He—
ALEX: No.
BOBBY: —has made big splash trades. He has gotten Luis Castillo. He has given the contract to Julio Rodriguez to not let him walk like other organizations who tried to have this sustainability mindset do, but they just haven’t done anything else. So we’re just— we’ve lost the plot here. If you want to win 80— if you want to win 87 games every year, congratulations, you’re never going to win the World Series. We’ve— we’re— we’ve moved beyond the point where you can just luck into a World Series.
ALEX: Well, it’s—
BOBBY: Like that’s not— that doesn’t happen anymore.
ALEX: It’s also just a total— it’s also just a perfect example of stepping on a rake when you really didn’t need to. Like fans were excited and then justifiably disappointed at the Mariners close miss of the playoffs, but there was some momentum going into the end of the year there. And if you, as Jerry Dipoto, come out and say, “Look, we’re just a move or two away, and we really want to build a contender for years. And, hey, we’re going to try and win 100% of our games. You know, we’re gonna go out there and try and win every game we can this year.” And give lip service to that desire from fans to see success, it’d be so easy, and you’d be celebrated. I just— no one is asking you to come out there and give your annual financial report—
BOBBY: Yes.
ALEX: —on, like, how the team is doing. Like, just go out—
BOBBY: Yes.
ALEX: —there, give some platitudes, and then walk away.
BOBBY: That is exactly right. And I— I’m so glad that you said the word financial because this is Moneyball. This is why I said that you have the most experience with this kind of mindset. I— my experience is different than this. As a Mets fan, it’s just been various degrees of dysfunction/bankruptcy court, you know? Like, it’s just— it’s not like this. This is Moneyball. Like, this is the logical conclusion of Moneyball, which the strategies of Moneyball were very intertwined with, like, the new Wall Street, where it’s like we just have to make 4% year over year, and that’ll compound. 4— I’m using the number 4%, because Dipoto said 54%, 4% better than half— you know, better— above 500, so to speak, in baseball terms. The problem is in baseball, your wins don’t compound.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: At the end of the year, the slate gets wiped clean. So imagine if your bank account on Wall Street went back to zero at the end of every year, I don’t think that on Wall Street, they would be like, “Man, we just got to make that 4% commission every year, and we’re all gonna get rich.”
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: It just doesn’t work like this. You have to win it at the end of the year. And if you don’t, it doesn’t really matter what you did the last nine years. Now, when it comes to, like, roster construction, and the contract length, and how many years you have your good players signed and how many years you can get them to commit to stay with your franchise, those things start to have, like, more longitudinal effects. But when he puts it in the context of what— teams who win 54% of their games over 10 years, it’s like that— you might have found that correlation and it might be really convenient to your narrative about how your owner only wants to spend $150 million every year on payroll. But it’s not actually causative. It’s not— actually, the reason that they won the World Series was not because they won 54% of games over a 10-year span. It was because they put a great roster together in one year and gave—
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: —themselves the best shot to do it. And the Mariners clearly are not doing that. That’s not to say that they won’t in the future. And that’s not to say that they’re not doing a better job than they were before Jerry Dipoto is. These— two things can be true at the same time. They can be run better, but not good enough. They have such a great fan base. They have such compelling players on their roster. They have the entire Pacific Northwest to themselves. You know, they have a storied history. They’re probably printing money, they have a great ballpark that I finally made it out to. They’re rike— raking in $70 per car on parking prices. There’s no reason. There’s just no reason. They’re getting money hand over fist from National TV deals. There’s just no reason that they can’t try a little harder in some years. I think that ultimately where we’ve netted out on, like, the Moneyball in the 2010— late 2010s and 2020s is what you always say, where it’s like, we go through competitive cycles. We maybe try to build the central core of our team more sustainably. We are blessed with Julio Rodriguez for 10 years. That is an amazing advantage that we have over every other franchise. That should give us so much optionality. And instead what it’s done is it’s boxed them in, apparently. These teams that actually win the World Series, they identify years where their roster is most conducive to adding established and therefore more expensive players. They push in for three, or four, or five years at a time. And then they take a step back. If I thought that— that— if I thought that that’s what Jerry Dipoto wanted to do, and was going to convince Mariners ownership to do, this— these comments would not bother me as much as they do. But I don’t think that’s what he wants to do. And I don’t think that’s what John— whatever his last name is, because there’s three—
ALEX: Stant— yeah.
BOBBY: —three different owners who have John-esque sounding names. I can’t remember. It’s— it’s John Sherman, John Stanton, and John Middleton.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: How the fuck am I supposed to get that straight? Honestly, honestly. If I thought that’s what they wanted to do, this wouldn’t bother me so much, but it is so condescending, and Mariners fans don’t deserve it. It’s nonsense.
ALEX: I— I love seeing where GMs set the goalposts when they’re experiencing maybe some level of success, but not the one— the success that the fan base wants to see. You know, it’s like, “Guys, I know we missed the playoffs, but actually we were trying to win 54% at the time, so this is a success— successful year for— guys, we, you know, we missed the playoffs, but we were playing competitive baseball in September and that’s all we’re trying to do every year. You know, we’re just trying to—”
BOBBY: Meaningful games.
ALEX: It’s meaningful games. It’s just like—
BOBBY: I think— I forget which Mets GM said, “We just want to be playing meaningful games in September,” but that was so satisfying.
ALEX: It’s like—
BOBBY: Yeah, that’s such a low bar.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: That’s such a— if you’re not playing meaningful games in September, you are trying to be bad.
ALEX: Yes.
BOBBY: Like everybody should be playing semi-meaningful games. I love— I— I know we need to wrap this up because I know— I— I promised I would not go on, like, a total tirade and, like, fold David Stearns and Billy Eppler into this, but I love when you say like— when you say anything bad about teams that are built, quote-unquote, like “sustainably with low— middle to low payroll” and then people come in and they’re like, “Well, would you rather be the Mets? Would you rather be the Padres? Would you rather be the Yankees?” It’s like— actually, yeah.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: I would—
ALEX: I’d take that.
BOBBY: I’d take— especially in the Yankees case, missing the playoffs for the first time in a long time and finishing in— under— I guess— I— I don’t even think they did finish under .500. So missing the playoffs for the first time in, like, 10 years. I— I know that money is not the only thing that wins you World Series, but money is spending on payroll is a more predictive statistic in terms of whether you will make the playoffs and be a good team over the long term than whatever it is that Jerry Dipoto is trying to measure himself by. Sustainability is not a metric. You can’t quantify that.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: Because it changes every year. The ownership’s idea of what is sustainable changes every year based on their other financial interests, or based on whether or not they give a shit about baseball this year, or whether or not they’re leveraged because of a short that didn’t work out on Wall Street. Like these things— or the housing market crashed. Like these things— they got caught up in the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme. What is sustainable year over year is not measurable, so I don’t know how we’re even supposed to judge. That’s— that’s the thing, moving the goalposts. Like you said, I don’t even know how we’re supposed to judge him.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: Are we supposed to be like, “Congrats, you won 54% of your games over a 10-year span.”
ALEX: Yeah. Right— right in line with your targets, actually.
BOBBY: Hang the fucking banner. Hang the banner, 54% of your games over a 10-year span, that one will fit right up there.
ALEX: He’s just serving—
BOBBY: Next to the first time I made the playoffs in 20 years banner.
ALEX: Yeah, he’s just serving this stuff up on a platter right now.
BOBBY: Come on, come on. Hang the fucking banner. Flags fly forever.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: Do you think that Cubs fans are like, “Wow, I really hope we get to the 54% over a 10-year— over a 10-year span number that Jerry said.”
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: “Ah, fuck the 2016 World Series, but we got to make it back to 54%.”
ALEX: Sustainability, baby.
BOBBY: “Because that will validate the World Series that we win if we get back to 54%.” Get out of here, dude. It’s so— so bad.
ALEX: Yeah, it’s so ridiculous.
BOBBY: You know what I’m worried about? That David Stearns saw this news and he’s like, “That’s a great point.” It’s just— it’s just— it’s— it’s too much hubris for me to think that you can be the guy who’s smart enough to figure out the exact amount of wins and numbers, and chances and opportunities to give yourself to win the World Series. I know that that’s the name of the job, you give yourself a shot. But it’s— it’s hubris to me to think that you can say, “This strategy of how many games we should win and how much we should invest over a 10-year span is going to be the thing that gives us the most likelihood to win the World Series.” Because baseball just does not work like that. It just doesn’t work like that.
ALEX: No. I mean, he— he came out and apologized for his remarks a couple days later and it’s basically like, “I”— you know, “Of course, we want to succeed and stuff.” But like, if you were sitting there as the— the guy running the baseball team apologizing and clarifying that you actually do want to win a World Series, you’re in a bad spot already. Like he said verbatim, “If we make winning the World Series our goal, we’ll do insane thing. They cut our” —da, da, da, da, da, da, da, da, da. So winning the World Series is not your goal. That’s what I picked up from that.
BOBBY: I love like— I love that idea, the— the supposition that if you win 54% of your games— I keep coming back to this number. By the way, 87 games. If you win 87 games over the span of 10 years that will suddenly mean that everything else that it takes to win a World Series. That everything that happens in October, it will make you more likely to be able to do those things. They have no effect on each other. Those things have no effect on each other.
ALEX: No.
BOBBY: If you hit this mysterious benchmark, it doesn’t mean that when you get to October, it’s gonna work out. Like I just— I don’t know.
ALEX: I know. I know.
BOBBY: I don’t know.
ALEX: I— it’s like—
BOBBY: It’s drive— it’s driving me so crazy. It’s so crazy. We’ve kind of exhausted all of our time. I don’t really need to talk about Billy Eppler, other than to say that people must really not like him if he’s resigning because of an investigation for using the Phantom IL, a thing that every team in baseball uses. A thing that our favorite of the podcast, Ross stripling, said he was put on by Farhan Zaidi earlier this year. He used the phrase Phantom IL to the press.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: He said that he was told that he had a back injury by Gabe Kapler and he just found that out. “I’m on the Phantom IL,” he said. So if Billy Eppler is resigning for that investigation, it just must mean that people were not interested in having him around anymore.
I honestly don’t know how to make heads or tails of it.
BOBBY: Yeah.
ALEX: Good luck to David.
BOBBY: Everybody enjoyed this last October without Stearns being the— the main attraction.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: You know? RIP at my chances at a Brewers World Series validating the David Stearns [1:00:46]
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: Born September 28th. Died October 4th.
[laughter]
ALEX: Before we head out of here, you mentioned earlier D-backs crossed UNITE HERE local picket line—
BOBBY: Yeah.
ALEX: —hotel workers, that they were staying in— the hotel that they were staying in, in— in this year is against the Dodgers. That’s whack.
BOBBY: Their excuse was like, “We’ve been just made aware of this today.”
ALEX: They said— yeah. “We were just made aware on social media.”
BOBBY: I— the strike has been going on for months?
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: This is the same strike that UNITE asked Taylor Swift to cancel her LA stadium tour dates because of— can you confirm whether or not Taylor Swift followed that advice? And so that’s been going on for a while.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: Of course, I don’t know that you can necessarily expect the Diamondbacks to be following UNITE HERE asking Taylor Swift to cancel her tour dates. I think that they were— had— had other things going on. They were like, “We gotta get Brandon Pfaadt ready to start—”
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: “—game one of the Wild Card series.” But their excuse for not moving to a different hotel so that they wouldn’t be crossing a picket line was that it’s just hard to find the accommodations, you know, big— big teams.
ALEX: It is hard to find hotels in Los Angeles.
BOBBY: It’s so hard to find hotels in Los Angeles. The second biggest city in the United States.
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: It’s tough. Tough. No hotels. Famously, no travel— not a tourist destination. I mean, I— I’m, I guess, sympathetic to the idea that they have a lot of people that need to be in very specific kinds of high-end hotel rooms but, like, come on, that’s not a very good excuse.
ALEX: No, it’s— the— the collective bargaining agreement does not allow players to refuse to cross the picket line, either, which is not necessarily something that I would think would be included in there. But especially with the fact that the— the PA joined the AFL-CIO just this— this past year.
BOBBY: [1:03:00]
ALEX: I mean, I— not that there are any rules or regulations around this sort of thing, but it’s always disheartening to see one of the larger, more visible unions refusing to show solidarity with one of their brethren. It’s just a bummer. That’s all.
BOBBY: It’s interesting that in the CBA, it says that you can cross a picket— or you can’t refuse to cross a picket line. I don’t remember reading that, but—
ALEX: I— I don’t think it explicitly says they can’t, but Clark had— that— but Tony Clark had mentioned last year that there’s basically no provision that allows them to refuse that.
BOBBY: But, like, my question then would be— there’s nothing that says that you have to stay in a specific hotel in the CBA, is there? Like there’s nothing that says that— I guess maybe there is, I don’t— I don’t really know. What— that would have been a real sexy thing to put on our list for the CBA—
ALEX: Right.
BOBBY: —Deep Dive pod, which would have been hotel etiquette. Requirements for hotel booking.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: That would have been right next to debt servicing. People would have really eaten that up. But, like, my guess would be that there’s no provision that allows them to refuse to do their jobs—
ALEX: Right.
BOBBY: —because they don’t want to cross a picket line. So like for the Teamsters, they won’t cross a picket line, but they— their members won’t be fired for not crossing a picket line, because there are specific provisions around what they can and can’t refuse to do when it involves crossing a picket line. So you saw a lot with, like, the Writers Guild strike, or the SAG-AFTRA strike, if there was an act of picket line going, the teamsters would not cross that picket line to deliver materials to build sets, to do the things that the Teamsters do for Hollywood productions. So I would guess that, like, there’s no provision in the MLB CBA that says you can— you can refuse to play a game because the stadium workers are on strike—
ALEX: Right.
BOBBY: —for example. Because playing the game is part of the obligations involved in working as a player in the MLBPA. But it’s kind of like a little bit more of a gray area for, like, a hotel that they would be staying in for a series that they’re playing in. As long as you still show up and play the games.
ALEX: Right.
BOBBY: I don’t think that you’re failing to fulfill your obligations. But that— all that being said, there is very little, I would guess, like, ability for a player to book their own hotel or like—
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: —like an expectation that they would be able to book their own hotel and— and stay separately with the team like in the middle of a playoff series, it’s like— that’s probably not—
ALEX: No.
BOBBY: —a realistic expectation.
ALEX: I think the onus falls on the Players Association and the league, and the— and the MLBPA said that they did make a formal request to the league, that the Diamondbacks not have to stay in this hotel, and I guess that request was just not honored. You know, I don’t know— necessarily know the line of communication that happens for that sort of thing, so—
BOBBY: It goes directly to Rob.
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: And Rob calls the hotel manager. And Rob says, “Listen, can we get this deal done?” And they say no. And then Rob says— he calls back, I think, directly to Torey Lovullo, and he says, “Hey, Torey. No, you guys are still staying in the same hotel.” This is just what he does all day.
ALEX: This is what he does, yeah.
BOBBY: This is like what the job of a commission— this is why he makes millions of dollars.
ALEX: Yeah. He’s just— phone calls left and right.
BOBBY: It’s a bummer either way, whatever the reasoning behind it, whoever had the ability to change it. It’s just— it’s not— it’s not good.
ALEX: No.
BOBBY: It’s not a good look.
ALEX: No.
BOBBY: Not a good look for the Diamondbacks. How do you think Ken Kendrick feels about the strike?
ALEX: I don’t even really want to contemplate that idea.
BOBBY: Okay.
ALEX: How do you think Ken Kendrick feels about the new Drake album?
BOBBY: What’s it called again? I liked your For All the Dogs I loved before joke. That was a good one.
ALEX: Thanks.
BOBBY: I was trying to work an— an— like an Isle of Dogs joke.
ALEX: Right.
BOBBY: For All— For the Isle of Dogs. Not as good as For All the Dogs I loved before.
ALEX: You can work— chop that— well, if you need to edit something in after the— after we record this [1:07:16]
BOBBY: Oh, yeah. Come back and just dub it?
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: Okay. That’s gonna do it for this week’s episode. Tipping Pitches watch-along Monday, October 9th 6:07 p.m. Eastern game, Philadelphia Phillies versus the Atlanta Braves game two. What’s the— what’s the pitching matchup for this one?
ALEX: I think it’s Wheeler versus Fried.
BOBBY: It’s a good one.
ALEX: It is a good one.
BOBBY: Zack Wheeler.
ALEX: Hmm.
BOBBY: Gonna be thinking about Brodie Van Wagenen for years to come, years to come, because of that one.
ALEX: Yeah.
BOBBY: The one that got away.
ALEX: The one that got away.
BOBBY: Above all the other ones, he’s the one that got away. You know why? Because he was actually very affordable for who he is. And he had injury concerns, whatever. I don’t care about injury concerns. It’s not— there was literally no reason that they didn’t sign him other than they just didn’t believe he was good, which is wild.
ALEX: Yeah. Bobby said there was too much surplus value there you left on the table by not signing him.
BOBBY: They left— exactly. Think of all the surplus value they just gave— they just gave it away to the Phillies.
ALEX: They can sign him to a below-market contract.
BOBBY: Right down I-95.
ALEX: What the hell are you doing?
BOBBY: What are they doing? What are they doing? So we do a Philadelphia Phillies education lesson— or Philadelphia education lesson right now for you? Do you remember the categories?
ALEX: I— I don’t know. I mean, do you have anything in the hopper that you’re itching to share?
BOBBY: I think it depends on the categories. The categories were sports, political figures, infrastructure, food, regional phrasing, and popery.
ALEX: You got some—
BOBBY: Maybe we should— maybe we should save it for the watch-along?
ALEX: That’s a good idea. There you go.
BOBBY: How about that [1:08:51]
ALEX: Do it online.
BOBBY: And Alex will also do his top five Drake albums in the watch-along.
ALEX: Uh-huh. Listeners will remember that during the watch-along in last year’s playoffs, we did witness a no-hitter. We kind of realized that—
BOBBY: Against the Phillies.
ALEX: —like two— against the Phillies. We realized that about two-thirds of the way through the game that that’s what we were seeing. So—
BOBBY: Here’s the million-dollar question for you.
ALEX: Uh-hmm.
BOBBY: What was the team that threw the no-hitter?
ALEX: It was— wasn’t it the Astros? No, it wasn’t—
BOBBY: I don’t think it was.
ALEX: —because that would have been in the World Series, which didn’t happen.
BOBBY: Well, it did happen. I mean, the— the Astros did no-hit the Phillies in the World Series. Cristian Javier.
ALEX: Was that— was that game— that was the game we watched then?
BOBBY: No, it wasn’t. It was just a regular season game where the Phillies got no hit. I don’t remember the team.
ALEX: That one is gonna sit with me for a little while.
BOBBY: Maybe it was the Astros. I really didn’t think it was during the playoffs, though.
ALEX: I thought it was. Like, we just kind of randomly chose this game. I mean, randomly chose the only game going on.
BOBBY: Our— wow. We are absolutely cooked. Our brains are absolutely cooked.
ALEX: It’s— it’s— it’s not good. It’s not [1:10:00]
BOBBY: Okay. Anyway, this is probably all gonna get cut. Thank you all for listening. We will be back next week.
[music]
ALEX RODRIGUEZ: Hello, everybody. I’m Alex Rodriguez. Tipping Pitches. Tipping Pitches. This is the one that I love the most. Tipping Pitches. So, we’ll see you next week. See ya!
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